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Re:Baoshang collapse threatens China's economy, may trigger ... by onlyrealcuzzo on Sunday June 30, 2019 @11:23AM (#20318676)
Unrelated, but you seem to know a lot about this, and I've been trying to track down an answer for months, so I'll ask.

I notice that China's M2 is $27.52T -- which is roughly equal to the US and the EU combined (ditto for M3). Considering China's real economy is roughly a quarter of the size of the US and EU combined, how can it sustain such a high M2?

I ask on the tangent that it seems like China has ridiculous amounts of cash to GDP, so it seems like defaults should be extraordinarily rare.

Re:Baoshang collapse threatens China's economy, may trigger ... by sremani on Sunday June 30, 2019 @02:11PM (#20319553)
This twitter thread addresses the two currency system of China.

https://twitter.com/adamscrabble/status/1094717028009689089

Re:Baoshang collapse threatens China's economy, may trigger ... by athriren on Sunday June 30, 2019 @09:00PM (#20321650)
Thanks! This was very interesting to me given it was a topic I knew nothing about (nor did I even know China was a two currency system).

I found this article on Medium (written by a fintech firm) that explains how it works with slightly more detail and specificity, if anyone is interested:

https://blog.sendwyre.com/cny-vs-cnh-rates-whats-the-differe...

Re:Baoshang collapse threatens China's economy, may trigger ... by cs702 on Sunday June 30, 2019 @12:40PM (#20319028)
I don't fully understand how China works as a country and economy:

* It is not a democracy.

* Citizens lack certain social freedoms that people in other developed countries take for granted.

* Properly speaking, it is not a capitalist system, as there is a lot of investment, including by state-owned enterprises, that seems uneconomic (extreme example: ghost cities).

* According to numerous media reports, its financial system has been plagued by bad loans for many years, so far without consequence (a quick Google search for "China bad loans" can verify it).

* Its national accounting figures (e.g., GDP) are reportedly "managed" (or less charitably, cooked) and therefore cannot be taken at face value.

* Its money supply, e.g., as measured by M2, appears to be much greater than levels that would be considered ludicrous in other developed economies.

It remains to be seen whether this latest "pinch" of liquidity in the banking system is the proverbial canary in the coal mine.

Re:Baoshang collapse threatens China's economy, may trigger ... by baybal2 on Sunday June 30, 2019 @01:35PM (#20319362)
> I don't fully understand how China works as a country and economy

I don't think that anybody, or even the head of Chinese central bank himself knows how Chinese economy works, except for the fact that it does.

When I lived in Canada, I shared apartment with a power couple from Beijing: a central bank worker, and a former Huawei senior engineer (though both were from Shaanxi originally.) A girl who worked in the central bank for her entire career were telling that just understanding everyday workings of the system was beyond PBOCs most senior analysts, giving the example of how PBOC took years to trace missing billions of rural lending cooperatives that went bust mid nineties, or how the entire PBOC analysis and statistics wing was unable to calculate country's real current account changes with any level of certainty.

Re:Baoshang collapse threatens China's economy, may trigger ... by ethbro on Sunday June 30, 2019 @04:57PM (#20320476)
Garbage in, garbage out.

While Enrons happen, a fundamental aspect of Western-style accounting is legally-mandated transparency (at least to someone, somewhere).

Without a standards-based legal system, what's to stop anyone from cooking the books?

And if every ledger is a lie to some degree, then aggregating those just produces bigger lies. Until you're finally left with the "unable to calculate [...] with any level of certainty" answers to a host of important economic questions.

Sounds familiar from the 1980s...

Re:Baoshang collapse threatens China's economy, may trigger ... by Fjolsvith on Sunday June 30, 2019 @04:10PM (#20320224)
There is also some crazy stuff going on that the citizenry engages in. The ghost cities are mainly caused by a custom of families with a daughter requiring suitors to own two and three homes before being eligible to court. Most of these extra apartments owned by single men are not even furnished or finished. [1]

1. https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19967740

Re:Baoshang collapse threatens China's economy, may trigger ... by anoncake on Sunday June 30, 2019 @03:49PM (#20320108)
> * Properly speaking, it is not a capitalist system, as there is a lot of investment, including by state-owned enterprises, that seems uneconomic (extreme example: ghost cities).

The definition of capitalism doesn't require that the capitalists are competent.

Re:Baoshang collapse threatens China's economy, may trigger ... by cs702 on Sunday June 30, 2019 @08:20PM (#20321480)
Agree.

What I meant to write but didn't was "not profit-seeking."

Re:Baoshang collapse threatens China's economy, may trigger ... by anoncake on Tuesday July 02, 2019 @07:55AM (#20334129)
That is not distinguishable from "bad at profit-seeking".