In a clean (from scratch) dev situation, when would it make sense to use the div option?
Does it semantically make the most sense? Not necessarily, but it isn't a blocker to most accessibility tools and use and support for ARIA attributes is pretty widespread nowadays, including all of the major browsers and screen readers.
> https://developers.google.com/web/fundamentals/accessibility...
> https://developer.mozilla.org/en-US/docs/Web/Accessibility/A...
The important point is that fundamentally using a <div> in place of <button> can still be made to work easily with these accessibility tools - many comments here imply it can't be done at all and only a button will work. Does it semantically make sense? Likely no, but it isn't a hard blocker on accessibility.