I definitely understand that the installation process for things like python can be confusing to non-programmers, but I think this is a bit disingenuous. You don't have to learn a build system to install it; python was the first programming language I ever learned, and I used it years before I ever even had any idea what a build system is.
If you can't even download an installer and run it, then yeah, maybe not quite ready for programming either.
Please forgive my snark, but this would be exactly my thought process as a reasonably competent computer user who wanted to learn Python.
When I was six years old, learning to program involved turning on the computer and typing
10 print “hello”
run
$ echo "hello"
Even on Windows you can open the browser console and do
> console.log("hello")
The problem is not that the environment is not available or setup is too difficult. The problem is that there's now way more competition from other shinies readily available (web, apps, games, videos). Even if you boot your home PC straight into a terminal, as soon as the kids find the way to a web browser it's game over. Even on 1980s home micros, if the kids got access to (pirated) games, practically none would volunterily keep on programming BASIC.