[edit] Also this trade war is gold for the propaganda. While the wealthy/educated people don't buy it too much, it helps Xi and his government with the "mass", thus strenghtening his power.
I disagree with the way that Trump administration is handling things. Making more noise to cover the previously-made-noise is a downward spiral/slippery slope, and he's on it.
China (aka Chinese People) will not suffer, because they will just not. They won't feel the 'pain' of losing 20% of their income if that happens. People living in the USA on the other hand, they will feel a 20% drop much harder. It is a sprint for Trump administration, but a marathon for Xi's and Vlad's administration. I fear that we haven't seen the worse part yet.
Intel, as far as I know, only let people go because they've been diminished due to ARM and Cisco with smartphone processors.
What is this new CPU from China? China is quite publicly known to be years behind the US in semiconductor design & fabrication.
I would agree with your statement that we'll get a new Chinese OS. Overall this is already in existence w/ WeChat, and all they need to do is go further down into the Kernal. As Android is restricted partially in the future, this may lead to other problems thought.
We'll see.
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/04/10/us_intel_china_ban/
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2015/07/15/china_supercomputer...
https://www.nextplatform.com/2016/06/20/look-inside-chinas-c...
http://www.netlib.org/utk/people/JackDongarra/PAPERS/sunway-...
https://www.theregister.co.uk/2018/11/13/500_supercomputers_...
I am not saying Intel lays off people only because of the Chinese ban but I think it contributes to its troubles if they cannot sell Xeon processors to China.
Both countries, honestly, should be "fine" without the same levels of trade we've had in the past. Per capita GDP is to the point where trade can be diminished whilst maintaining relatively stable growth. The problem is primarily, IMO, to do with world tensions & world peace.
Trump did not name enough ambassadors, and everything turned out pretty well, no? That's because US ambassies work pretty well w/o any ambassador. Those are just prestigial distinctions, the workers don't really change. At least in France, there is at least 5 power: the administration is the 5th, and it should not be underestimated.