News for hackers. Stuff that matters.

A comment on 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity. Parent comment

Re:10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury... by lordnacho on Sunday June 02, 2019 @06:23PM (#20078707)
Ex quant trader here.

There's no arbitrage in the strict sense, that's clear.

But there's none in the statistical sense, either. Yield curve inversion doesn't happen all that often, how are you going to confidently bet that what happened the last few times will happen again this time, given that n is so low and there's always the issue of regime change?

[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury... by bradleyjg on Sunday June 02, 2019 @07:11PM (#20079018)
Yes, that’s exactly why pundits shouldn’t be so confident. All the same reasons for uncertainty apply to investors and pundits alike—-but confidence in punditry garners little risk.
[ Parent | on HN ]