> They recently announced they would stop doing that.

I'm aware. Markets are forward looking. As you can see, yields have dropped precipitously since the announcement, and the curve has flattened. This is consistent with expectations of increased purchases of securities in the tail end of the curve.

Yes...and therefore, this recent yield inversion may not be related to growing risk of recession in the US. Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. I don't know. That's why I'm leery of predictions made based solely on the inversion of yields. Things are different this time.

That's my point :-)

> this recent yield inversion may not be related to growing risk of recession in the US

It's been a reliable signal in the past, but perhaps this time is different.

Interestingly, some economists postulate that such an inversion may be somewhat causative of recession, due to increased short term funding costs relative to long term funding costs.

> It's been a reliable signal in the past, but perhaps this time is different.

Yes, we're in agreement :-)

> Interestingly, some economists postulate that such an inversion may be somewhat causative of recession...

That could be true... I don't know.