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A comment on New Causes of Autism Found in Noncoding DNA. Parent comment
Conclusion: It's still pretty-well ambiguous as far as I can tell. You're right that it's not conclusively increasing.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10803-018-3834-0 -- Says true autism rates increased between '85 and '98, but since then only diagnosis of autism has been increasing til '04.
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/bjpsych-open/article...
I note that I think it's also pretty well-agreed upon that rates don't match up between countries.
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Conclusion: It's still pretty-well ambiguous as far as I can tell. You're right that it's not conclusively increasing.
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10803-018-3834-0 -- Says true autism rates increased between '85 and '98, but since then only diagnosis of autism has been increasing til '04.
https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/bjpsych-open/article...
I note that I think it's also pretty well-agreed upon that rates don't match up between countries.