Ask me how I know.
Installing an app is more than a 2 minute commitment. You also have to be OK with that app running on your device.
An average person will have pages of apps installed, but that would actually use only what's on the first page. So they have a choice of bumping something off their precious FP to fit my special app or just keep it where it lands after installation, on the back pages. And if it ends up there, out of rotation, it won't see much voluntary use.
All of these have a very important aspect in common: you can choose your application you want to access the network with. I'm tired of needing to use The Official®©™ App, and Signal is no exception. It's also a single entity thus being a single point of failure.
If you really want to make a difference please try to make people to migrate to something open. Quicksy[^1], DeltaChat[^2], something. But not another, essentially closed platform.
[^1]: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=im.quicksy.cli...
[^2]: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=chat.delta
I've done the opposite: there's no way I'm going to install a messaging app, and everyone I care to interact with knows they need to either use SMS or email to reach me. Everyone's been perfectly fine with that.
Many switched, including the least technical people I know. A few did not. It's really not hard; you just have to draw a line in the sand.
As a result of everyone I know using Signal, it fundamentally doesn't matter to me if the "mainstream" switches. We're already all on board.