Chris Urmson, co-founder of Aurora and former cto if the Google self driving car project doesn't expect to see autonomous vehicles such as robotaxis scale broadly for 30-50 years. His time frames were a fair but more aggressive a few years ago before he had hit self-driving car puberty.

Autopilot's true believers have yet to recognize the full scope of the problem.

> Autopilot's true believers have yet to recognize the full scope of the problem.

Those guys have their head in the sand about autonomous cars effects on congestion.

Well that’s another issue. I don’t drive into my relatively nearby major city much these days because of traffic (and because it’s nearly an hour in any case).

If I could be driven at minimal incremental cost? A whole lot more.

And I doubt I’m atypical.

A moon base must have seemed inevitable to those in the 1960s too.

1960s is a bit too optimistic. I personally think it'll happen in the 1970s.

If building a base on the moon created wealth and would have rewarded the builders with billions of dollars, then yes, we'd probably have a base on the moon by now.

Not much money in moon bases. Transportation industry is over half a trillion $ though.