This discussion is about Autopilot/FSD not the car itself. Tesla certainly didn't sell 400k cars with the FSD option.

They sold 400k cars with hardware they believe is sufficient for full self driving (perhaps with limited upgrades).

Tesla is the only one actually attempting to empower individuals with FSD tech. Everyone else has given up and/or wants to monopolize it for private fleets. Everyone claims to be shooting for the same FSD capability. Different strategies is, of course, wrongly conflated with "fraud."

I tend to think Tesla is behind Waymo. It's hard to say beyond that. But for actual mass deployment of serious hardware, no one is ahead of Tesla.

Charlatan in 2016: Teslas built right now has all the hardware required for FSD

Charlatan in 2019: The previous version by nVidia was such garbage (processing 1.5 fps, really?). Teslas built right now has all the hardware required for FSD.

Charlatan, a few minutes later: We are working on the next version of FSD hardware (that'd most definitely render 2019 obsolete)

There is Musk, the sometimes engineer, then there is Musk, the charlatan. An Engineer would never claim 'the latest hardware will be the greatest ever'

What I find interesting is that Nvidia claimed on their website that their hardware could do self driving. That’s the same hardware that Tesla has used and has to upgrade to the new Neural Net chip. Do you think Nvidia is going to pay for the hardware upgrade Teslas need? Tesla is doing so. They believe the current version of the NN is good enough for FSD, but that doesn’t mean it can’t be improved.

What I find so fascinating about this discussion is how Tesla is necessarily the most transparent player yet everyone else (with the same stated FSD goals) is given a pass due to secrecy. I suppose that means secrecy works.

What do you mean Tesla is the most transparent player? They absolutely never showed anything else than slides and a 2 minute video. That's probably the least transparent from all the big players. You can go to Mountain View and see cars running right now. Or go to Phoenix and get into a Waymo car.

Again you got ahead of yourself with the Tesla hype.

Nvidia probably wrote this b/c Tesla is using it. And Tesla is claiming the hardware is (was) enough b/c Nvidia wrote it.

Learning a problem is harder 3 years later isn’t unusual in software world. All the autonomous car companies said this is harder. Waymo has no driverless cars anywhere and there are quotes saying it would be ready.

Also, Elon always promised hardware upgrade if needed.

"Learning a problem is harder"

We're talking about the holy grail of AI in the automotive industry, not a SaaS side project.

This isn't assigning the Summer Vision Project in 1966.

Everyone knew that this was going to be a monumental problem, and the only person in the room who was claiming they already had all the tools to solve the problem (a problem that no one else is even willing to say they fully understood how to approach yet) is also the guy with a record for lying through his teeth so much there's a term for it.

I'm excited to see real attempts at FSD. Not from the company that gets most of it's hype from AP1, which used the same sensor suit GM was putting in cars years ago for off-label applications so they could go around waving "autopilot", which resulted in easily preventable deaths.

iPhone in 2008 had all the hardware to run an iPhone. iPhone in 2019 also has all the hardware to run an iPhone. You don't want to Tesla to continually improve their hardware ?

> Tesla is the only one actually attempting to empower individuals with FSD tech. Everyone else has given up and/or wants to monopolize it for private fleets.

There's a guy in a village next to me that is "attempting to empower individuals" with energy medicine (healing people with the touch of his hands). Everyone else, including medicine researchers, has given up on this.

All Model 3 is equipped with hardware to support FSD

How can people believe this?

Tesla claim they have all the hardware for FSD, but FSD is still science fiction. It literally doesn't exist. Waymo is closest but they use Lidar, which Tesla's aren't equipped with.

Maybe Tesla will work it out and make a great self driving car on cheap hardware. I'll believe it when I see it

Waymo is closer to what? driving on some simple californian roads?

Waymo is already available to the public in Arizona:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-waymo-selfdriving-focus/w...

Tesla’s most recent FSD video took place around Palo Alto. The same area where its 2016 video was filmed.

Plenty of people pre-ordered No Man's Sky - then were upset when they received less than what they thought they'd been promised. That's the risk when you pay upfront for a product that doesn't exist.

Maybe people who've paid for the Tesla FSD package will receive what I imagine when I hear "full self driving". Or maybe, like No Man's Sky backers, they'll get something they're less happy with.

Musk has his head in the clouds. While this is good for his long-term plans to do the impossible, it means you can never believe him on progress or dates until you can touch the product.