> Tesla has already an impressive product on the road that is constantly improving.

Tesla has no full autonomy product on the road. On full autonomy, Tesla could easily go the way of vaporware.

> Waymo could (likely) go the way of vaporware for all we know.

Waymo has fully autonomous vehicles in (limited) commercial operation. Like Tesla, they plan to use self-driving to operate a ride-hailing service; unlike Tesla, they are actually doing that now, if only in a limited way.

It would be very surprising that the cars that are already driving around Phoenix, AZ are vaporware.

Isn't the real problem that Phoenix, AZ is the spherical cow of self-driving?

The spherical cow is a simplified abstraction that doesn't accurately model anything in the real world.

Phoenix, AZ, is in the real world, with real roads and real customers for a real, if limited, self-driving service. Waymo’s self-driving is far less vaporware than Tesla's.

It was meant exactly in this sense, namely that the conditions in Phoenix do not resemble the challenges in the rest of the world.

Phoenix gets about 310 days of sunshine per year, only 200mm of precipitation with no snow, no fog, ...

...shitty drivers from the other 49 states, blue-haired old ladies who haven’t seen the inside of a DMV in 20 years, and massive dust storms. That 200mm of precipitation happens over a couple of days. I’ve driven in every state in the western US, and those rain storms are scary.

And what do the Waymo vehicles do during such a dust- or rainstorm? Just carry on providing rides, or go into a safety shutdown mode? (Genuine question; I have no idea.)

> what do the Waymo vehicles do during such a dust- or rainstorm?

Do what most reasonable drivers in Phoenix do. Pull over and enjoy the view. (Phoenix dust and heavy rainstorms tend to pass in ten to thirty minutes.)

It is likely much easier to expand territory bit by bit and improving the baseline than it is to throw everything and the kitchensink at essentially unproven hardware. The first will likely work, the second will end in blood.

To me, it's obvious Tesla will win the autonomy race (unless Elon dies prematurely).

I believe Elon's greatest strength is his ability to accurately predict reality (physics), perhaps better than anyone alive right now.