If Tesla does well with HW3 they'll be able to get Autopilot into 'flashy demo' territory in the not-too-distant-future and that will have the Tesla fans thumping their chests for years to come before it dawns on them that there is actually is a massive gap between going a few miles in traffic and pulling off a couple fancy maneuvers along the way, and a car that can navigate a city safely without a human driver. Nobody knows how wide that gap actually is.

Progress in free-range robotics is inverse exponential, and by that I mean that to drive the error rate down by an order of magnitude, you need to do way more work than was needed to achieve the previous order of magnitude.

We can come back to this in 7 years or so and re-examine just how far off Tesla may be from 'The Tesla Network'. Although I suppose the Tesla Network can just be renting somebody else's Tesla for an afternoon, FSD not necessary, and in that case, any day, right?