It's an absolutely atrocious example of the Red Queen effect ("running just to stand still") and I can't believe that technologists who in other contexts value elegance and efficiency can defend bitcoin with a straight face. I can only assume they have a lot of money tied up in bitcoin, because otherwise it makes no sense.
CO2 emissions being wrong by a factor of a thousand is a "detail" to you? ;) My point is that the impact of proof-of-work, although real, is grossly exaggerated and appears to be more manageable than what eye-catching press titles suggest.
Another example: journalists like to claim Bitcoin emits as much CO2 as an entire country. But in fact current emissions are comparable to what a single city like Cape Town emits (28 MtCO2/yr.) Thus these sorts of statements are not so much a testament of how much Bitcoin emits, but more a testament of how little CO2 these countries emits.
"designed to waste as much energy as possible"
It is designed to use no more than what the revenues (fees+rewards) allow to purchase.
But instead of debating how big or how small Bitcoin's energy use is, I think a more intellectually interesting debate to have is whether or not Bitcoin is useful to society, and whether or not its utility justifies the costs.
> I think a more intellectually interesting debate to have is whether or not Bitcoin is useful to society
Exactly.
I honestly don't think it's an interesting debate. It's been done to death, and neither side will ever make any headway in convincing the other.
In this case, perhaps because there's no easy yes/no answer to it. I'm an opponent of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency in general. I find the environment important. However, I can attest there are valid use cases for cryptocurrency. I don't think there are valid use cases for me (a European utilizing the EUR who's not interested in tax avoidance or buying illegal utilities) though. So for me cryptocurrencies are not only irrelevant, they're harmful.
It would be good if it were actually and deliberately properly designed this way to create an arms race of "who can get more general-purpose computing power for less" because it would accelerate technology development with this Red Queen effect...
Unfortunately they've missed the "general purpose part" - most mining todays is done by special-purpose hardware made for mining only, and improving it is generally useless for CPU / GPU / TPU design.
I'd fully support a similar coin that would be mine-able on GPU / TPU / other-general-matrix-multiplication-hardware because it would lead to a race decreasing the price of hardware that can run large neural networks :)
As it stands, brute-forcing SHA256 on ASICs is just a travesty.
If the mining algorithm requires specialized hardware, then no group starts out with an existing advantage. If the NSA decided it wanted to 51% attack a cryptocurrency, they'd have to make a massive investment in their own hardware, and then that hardware can't be repurposed after the attack. A 51% attack is likely to devastate the value of a cryptocurrency, which also de-values any mining hardware built for it, which naturally discourages anyone who invested in mining hardware from attacking the cryptocurrency.
Though mining algorithms that require specialized hardware also come with their own downsides: the companies that invest in making the mining hardware early on could decide to keep the most advanced mining hardware for themselves and gain a lot of control over the network.
The dollar is backed by a few million troops. Bitcoin is backed by a few million tons of coal.
Just FYI, a 51% attack doesn't allow you to "steal all the bitcoins"
Governments such as Iceland borrow military power through international agreements.
Do you agree that defense against invasion requires an adequate military or agreements with nations with adequate militaries?
If we agree on those two claims, it seems we must agree that militarily robust sovereignty is necessary but not sufficient for the integrity of a fiat currency.
>mining would eventually become too computationally expensive
I don't think that's true, the difficulty adjusts every two(?) weeks based on the hashrate.
At the present moment network users are collectively paying about $700 000 a day in tx fees, so clearly the network itself creates value.
[citation needed]
But even if that were true, it would be disincentivizing the deployment of grid-scale storage technologies, so still hurting the battle against climate change.
> This Nature article was debunked by other researchers.
Who are these other researcher? Care to link to their research on this?
> when in fact 60-70% of the mining power comes from a single row in this table: Antminer S9
How do we know that?
> It is not unrealistic to imagine the proportion of CO2 per kWh could be in a century 20% of what it is today.
Again, how do we know that?
When a bitcoiner says something is "debunked", what they mean is that someone wrote a post on Medium. In this case, it's an investment banker who put some money into electricity companies before he put money into Bitcoin: https://hackernoon.com/the-reports-of-bitcoin-environmental-...
Digiconomist's response: "Verify, don't trust" - he shows his working. https://digiconomist.net/verify-dont-trust/
It takes months to write, peer-review, and publish research papers, so given that this Nature Climate Change article is quite recent at the moment there exists absolutely zero peer-reviewed studies or counterstudies following up on it. However here are some researchers who have criticized it in their own informal analysis or press interviews: see links in https://is.gd/ksyKyv — shortened URL for https://thinkprogress-org.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/thinkprogre...
The researchers in question are:
Dr. Jon Koomey, who was a Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) scientist for more than two decades.
Professor Eric Masanet, who leads the Energy and Resource Systems Analysis Lab at Northwestern University.
Arman Shehabi, research scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Lab.
And myself who has criticized it here on HN (my work's been cited in Nature Sustainability and the NYT: http://blog.zorinaq.com/bitcoin-electricity-consumption/ so I guess this makes me a researcher now)
"How do we know that?"
It's common knowledge to anyone in the industry that the Antminer S9 is by far the most popular Bitcoin mining machine. For some official reports on that, see market research reports and IPO filings from multiple mining hardware manufacturers. For example this has been neatly researched and presented by the team lead by Christian Stoll in https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3335781 Read their Supplementary Data, tab "3.4 IPO filing analysis"
"Again, how do we know that?"
As I said elsewhere in this thread, according to https://www.hsdl.org/?abstract&did=801297 CO2 emissions per kWh have already decreased -25% over 11 years. Therefore -80% in 100 years seems easily achievable (the trend only has to continue for 60 years, then there can be 40 years of technological stagnation.)
In fact we don't even need any technological breakthrough to achieve -80%. France already emits 90% less CO2 per kWh than the average country, thanks to nuclear power.
So, there are no peer-reviewed, published research on this? Good to know.
> It's common knowledge to anyone in the industry that the Antminer S9 is by far the most popular Bitcoin mining machine.
Most popular can mean 30% or even 70% of hash rate. How do we know it is 60-70% as you claim?
> As I said elsewhere in this thread, according to https://www.hsdl.org/?abstract&did=801297 CO2 emissions per kWh have already decreased -25% over 11 years. Therefore -80% in 100 years seems easily achievable (the trend only has to continue for 60 years, then there can be 40 years of technological stagnation.)
To actually do a comparison, what exactly was the efficiency achieved in last 100 years? Because it looks like you are drawing the same line assumption which the paper does regarding transaction fees and power growth.
> In fact we don't even need any technological breakthrough to achieve -80%. France already emits 90% less CO2 per kWh than the average country, thanks to nuclear power.
And how much of the hash rate does France generate? Or how much of China's energy in the future is going to come from nuclear power (assuming they remain the country with largest hashrate).
They are coming. At least one counter-study should imminently be published (I am one of the reviewers.) I am sure more are coming. Patience :)
"How do we know it is 60-70% as you claim?"
As I already said: this has been neatly researched and presented by the team lead by Christian Stoll in https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3335781 Read their Supplementary Data, tab "3.4 IPO filing analysis" This dominance of the S9 is actually a point where all market researchers unanimously agree on. I am surprised you seem to think it's a contentious point.
"Because it looks like you are drawing the same line assumption which the paper does regarding transaction fees and power growth"
Not the same line. The researchers assumed tx fees represent as of today 100% of mining revenues when it's really 2% and they extrapolate from here (gross overestimation). Whereas I'm assuming the current CO₂/kWh trend slows down (underestimation).
"And how much of the hash rate does France generate? Or how much of China's energy in the future is going to come from nuclear power (assuming they remain the country with largest hashrate)."
My point was that all we need is for present-day nuclear technology to be adopted by a good proportion of electricity generators over the next 100 years, and this would easily reduce CO2 emissions per kWh by 80%.
You ask a lot of "how do we know that", but the same question applies to your position: "How do we know there will be zero CO2/kWh improvements over the next 100 years?" "How do we know the market share of the Antminer S9 is 1/62 = 1.6% (because there are 62 rows in https://raw.githubusercontent.com/moracamilo/Bitcoin/master/...)?" Neither you nor these Nature Climate Change researchers provide any justification, whereas I do.
That’s a reasonable approximation. Over time mining is paid for by transaction fees in a competitive market. If you get 2x the fees and the cost to mine stays the same, you get 2x as much mining.
Granted that assumes transaction fees are ~1:1 with transaction count. However, protection from a 51% attack eventually requires 1:1 increase in mining as the value of a 51% attack increase, so the lower bound is there.
No, because the authors don't understand how miners gain revenue. For every dollar of miners revenues, currently $0.02 come from tx fees and $0.98 come from the block reward (12.5 BTC today.) Therefore with everything remaining equal (same average fee per tx, which is the authors' assumption), if the tx rate grew 50x it would increase miners revenues to $1.98, hence only doubling revenues and power consumption.
However, looking at historical data the current fees are well below the cap. https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-transactionfees...
Now, currently Bitcoin can’t scale transactions so extrapolation is kind of up in the air. But, in practice if it’s going to survive it needs to create value to offset the cost of mining.
True, we will never be able to extrapolate future fees. I'm merely pointing out the authors did it in a way that is completely bogus.
I mostly agreed with the first two bullet points, but please show me a significant country that managed to reduce their CO2 emissions with renewables.
For instance, in China, where a lot of Bitcoin mining happens, the share of renewables increases in many countries, but not even as fast as the actual consumption by the population, leading them to open more coal power plants as well.
I'll wait until I see it.
https://www.umweltbundesamt.de/daten/klima/treibhausgas-emis...
Renewables are the biggest increase in new power supply in Germany.
Improvments in renewable technology should make renewable energy cost effective even without subsidy (at least the newer ones).
The number of misleading claims when it comes to the current state of batteries the cost-effectiveness of wind and solar etc is staggering.
Don't forget calculating the price and consequences of ex CO2 of wind and solar does not include things like true cost of production (the entire vertical stack), decommission, the fact that it makes other energy types more expensive (like coal used ex at night when the sun don't shine), doesn't include the cost of digging for rare-earth materials etc.
Don't forget that solar and wind require huge areas to work because the density of wind and solar is so low compared to nuclear, oil or coal.
Sun and wind combined cover less than 1% of the worlds energy needs. The high percentages some claim like when Denmark claim 40% comes from wind are misleading as they only compare to electricity, only talks about the energy that's produced in the country (an excludes energy imported for ex when there is no wind)
There is so much disingenuous information out there it's quite astounding.
And according to https://www.hsdl.org/?abstract&did=801297 CO2 emissions per kWh have already decreased 2.58%/year between 2005 and 2016 (-25% over 11 years). That's already far better than the 1.60%/year I assumed (-80% over 100 years), further strengthening my point that these Nature authors' assumption that CO2/kWh will never improve in 100 years is utterly unrealistic.
I was asking for a country that managed to reduce their CO2 emissions significantly with renewables. It may happen in the future, and I'm certainly hoping for it, but we don't have a large-scale concrete example yet.
"we don't have a large-scale concrete example yet"
China single-handedly added 230 GW of hydropower in 10 years (2006-2016). This could power the entire country of Japan (5th biggest electricity consumer in the world). If this isn't "large-scale" enough for you, I don't know what is ;) China also added a ton of fossil fuel power plants in that same period, but still it shows at least hydro, as a renewable, can work at very large scales.
Nuclear is literally the best combination of the best features from each of the other forms of energy.
[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/cbovaird/2019/03/22/95-of-repor...
To gauge Bitcoin's adoption you need to look at on-chain transactions, not exchange trades. Makes sense?
(1) There are more people now. Not creating money disproportionately benefits the people who were alive before you. If you print no new money, the amount of wealth you have doubles as a proportion of the population when the population doubles. As economic activity increases and becomes more efficient you can do even more with that money. This pressure creates wealth inequality over time -- this is in part what the pilgrims sought to escape as they fled the old world of kings/queens/fiefs/lords.
(2) A predictable rate of inflation incentivizes the allocation of capital to productive endeavors. If your money just became more valuable over time, why on earth would you risk it by investing in something when you can just sit back, chill and be rich? That's why Bitcoin is a god-awful currency. Nobody wants to spend it because they think it will "mewn soon."
The federal reserve doesn't print money, the treasury does. They didn't create money to offset Chinese loans, they sold treasuries (debt obligations) to China, which in turn yielded money. You know what, I won't do as good a job as this article will explaining it to you [1], entitled "Understanding How the Federal Reserve Creates Money."
That all said none of this matters to you, a savvy investor with assets, because you shouldn't hold money. It's not intended to be held, it's meant to be circulated. Go buy things with it, that's what it's for. It can't depreciate in your hands if you've bought something with it. Salaries track inflation, housing tracks inflation, debts don't, so your principal goes down in real-world dollars over time. If you live paycheck-to-paycheck you're totally unaffected.
I'm starting to think the solution to Bitcoin is forcing everyone to attend civics and economics classes.
[1] https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/081415/under...
[1] https://cointelegraph.com/news/north-korea-increasingly-uses...
[2] https://www.ccn.com/how-mexican-cartels-use-chinese-crypto-b...
Bitcoin, 0.1% of all electricity: 7 tps
THE ENTIRE REST OF CIVILISATION, 99.9% of all electricity: a whole lot more than 6993 tps.
Please try not to let that influence your opinion about the article though, because it does rightly point out the flaws in the original calculations, and the validity of the peer review of the original article.
* They overestimate (probably by 3x-5x) the present power consumption of miners because they assume the distribution of types of mining machine is homogenous in this table: https://github.com/moracamilo/Bitcoin/blob/master/Randi_Tabl... (when in fact 60-70% of the mining power comes from a single row in this table: Antminer S9). This error causes their calculated average efficiency (J/GH) to be much overestimated as their dataset contains mostly inefficient obsolete ASICs
* They overestimate future power consumption by ~50x by assuming it grows linearly with the transaction rate (in reality it doesn't). Power consumption grows with miners revenues, proportional to {block rewards + transaction fees}. Fees account for currently ~2% of revenues (average of last 60 days). Rewards decline over time, so that fees will eventually account for close to 100% of revenues, which will happen on the authors timeline of 100 years. So if fees per transaction remaimed constant, we could see a 50x tx rate growth with no increase of power consumption.
* They assume the proportion of CO2 emissions per kWh never improves over the next 100 years (great progress of renewables coming to a sudden stop?), and that Bitcoin consumes more fossil fuels than what the entire world currently consumes (infinite fossil fuel reserves?). It is not unrealistic to imagine the proportion of CO2 per kWh could be in a century 20% of what it is today.
Overall, these errors combined mean their scenario overestimates CO2 emissions by a factor of about a thousand: (3 to 5) x 50 ÷ 20% = 750x to 1250x
Edit: simplified bullet point #2