Given the debate at hand, this link is definitely worth a read.
Completely forgetting that Apple Music is premium only service, while Spotify' minority of paying customers carry majority of freeloaders. Very "fair" comparison.
(I know that Spotify have ads, but ad revenue is significantly less than 10$/m)
The top grossing iOS app (Tinder.app) somehow is not really complaining about this though, but that's because most their revenue comes from the iOS in app purchases.
https://www.theverge.com/2018/8/21/17764424/netflix-feature-...
this article implies that no, it is indeed 30% for any new user, at least for netflix, but then that matches up with what spotify claims. spotify also claims that apple changes what policy applies to each company. it does mention the second year reduction, but that seems to be for other apps?
i think it's at least clear that apple makes it a little unclear what they exactly do. i have heard from more than one app developer (from big companies) complain about apple's arbitrary app store processes.