Re:Futarchy: Vote Values, But Bet Beliefs (2013)
by bo1024 on Friday April 05, 2019 @11:17AM
(#19583374)
Hi, thanks for the response.
Two responses. First, I'm thinking the manipulator has an outside incentive. If trump wins, they get a million dollar kickback. So losing 500k on bets is acceptable to them.
Second, I'm thinking of the following attack that actually loses nothing (if it works). The attacker doesn't bet at all in the market conditioned on trump being elected. She only bets in the other market. But she bets really heavily that beans will be expensive in that case. So we elect Trump. All trades in that other market are cancelled and the attacker gets all her money back. And she isn't even exposed to any risk on the bean price on this timeline, so to speak.
Re:Futarchy: Vote Values, But Bet Beliefs (2013)
by bo1024 on Tuesday April 09, 2019 @10:11AM
(#19614800)
Too bad not to get a response from the above poster; I'm not wrong, and I hope my explanation makes sense. The issue is addressed for example in the academic paper I linked to above.
Two responses. First, I'm thinking the manipulator has an outside incentive. If trump wins, they get a million dollar kickback. So losing 500k on bets is acceptable to them.
Second, I'm thinking of the following attack that actually loses nothing (if it works). The attacker doesn't bet at all in the market conditioned on trump being elected. She only bets in the other market. But she bets really heavily that beans will be expensive in that case. So we elect Trump. All trades in that other market are cancelled and the attacker gets all her money back. And she isn't even exposed to any risk on the bean price on this timeline, so to speak.