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A comment on Futarchy: Vote Values, But Bet Beliefs (2013).

Re:Futarchy: Vote Values, But Bet Beliefs (2013) by dalbasal on Friday April 05, 2019 @05:37AM (#19581013)
IMO, this ends at the start:

"Elected representatives would formally define and manage an after-the-fact measurement of national welfare."

Sounds doable, but it's essentially impossible. If you could reliably measure the outcomes of policies (after the fact, nevermind using speculators to predict the future), quite a lot of "rational" decision making methods would be possible.

The problem is that it's not possible.

It's not even possible on a much smaller scale, like a mid-sized company.

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Re:Futarchy: Vote Values, But Bet Beliefs (2013) by zack_amoveo on Friday April 05, 2019 @10:54AM (#19583132)
Just have goals that are easily measured. We can easily measure the relative prices of things in the market.

If your company's goal is to increase the stock price above some target, that is a metric that is easily measured. So we can make futarchy markets to help your company make decisions to achieve your goal.

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Re:Futarchy: Vote Values, But Bet Beliefs (2013) by dragonwriter on Friday April 05, 2019 @01:47PM (#19585187)
> Just have goals that are easily measured.

If people's actual goals were easily measured, that would be great, but they aren't, and basing a system of government on the idea that you can pretend they are is silly.

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Re:Futarchy: Vote Values, But Bet Beliefs (2013) by taffer on Friday April 05, 2019 @06:54AM (#19581342)
Just because we can't predict the future doesn't mean we shouldn't try to estimate things. If we wanted 100% certainty, we'd have to throw away pretty much all science and human knowledge.
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Re:Futarchy: Vote Values, But Bet Beliefs (2013) by sanxiyn on Friday April 05, 2019 @06:16AM (#19581169)
Isn't this what OKR(Objectives and Key Results) is about? OKR seems to be working? Although yes, it is challenging to scale to national level.
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Re:Futarchy: Vote Values, But Bet Beliefs (2013) by dragonwriter on Friday April 05, 2019 @10:48AM (#19583050)
> Isn't this what OKR(Objectives and Key Results) is about?

Not really, but even if so:

> OKR seems to be working?

OKR seems to be a popular trend in certain industries. Whether it's a source of success is more debatable.

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