zack_amoveo

The biggest threat to the environment today is the propaganda.

People with a financial interest in our environmentalist policies use propaganda to manipulate us into passing laws to their benefit.

Futarchy can save the environment from these maniacs: https://github.com/zack-bitcoin/amoveo/blob/master/docs/use-...

I wrote this blockchain for futarchy and prediction markets. https://github.com/zack-bitcoin/amoveo

We use futarchy to make decisions for our own community as well. If you want to learn more about futarchy, or do some experiments on a live futarchy system, then join us on telegram or discord.

Lets consider a game. A coin will be flipped, and we can bet as much money as we want that either heads or tails will win. You will win $100 if the price in this market stays >75% chance of heads for 7 days continuously.

So you keep buying up shares of heads, moving the price from 50 -> 60 -> 70 -> 80. by the end you are betting $4 for the chance to win $1.

I know that the result is 50-50, so if I bet $1 against you, and have the chance to win $4, then that means my expected profit of taking this bet is %200. Which makes this one of the best investments available on earth. Which means many people will want to participate.

Every bet you make at the price 80-20 costs you $1, but is only worth $0.40. you are losing 60% of however much money you bet. So if you bet $200, then your expected loss would be $120. which is even bigger than the $100 you could potentially win by manipulating the market.

It doesn't matter if I bribe a manipulator with $100, or with $1 billion. The same logic holds. Having a vested interest in the outcome of a decision does not give you any ability to manipulate us into making that decision.

http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/biashelp.pdf

Just have goals that are easily measured. We can easily measure the relative prices of things in the market.

If your company's goal is to increase the stock price above some target, that is a metric that is easily measured. So we can make futarchy markets to help your company make decisions to achieve your goal.

If we consider a more concrete example, you will see that this attack can't happen.

We can either elect Trump, or not-Trump as president. Everyone agrees that we want the price of beans to be cheaper. So there are 4 possibilities: 1) expensive beans + Trump president 2) expensive beans - Trump 3) cheap beans + Trump 4) cheap beans - Trump

An attacker doing what you describe would buy up many shares of (3) and (2). To try and convince us all that if trump wins, beans will be cheap. The attacker will need to keep buying up (3) and (2) to keep them more expensive than the alternatives. So the attacker is betting like $100 for every $50 others are betting.

Assuming the attacker has more money than everyone else who is willing to participate in this market put together, then the attacker could cause us to think that Trump will make beans cheap.

But, there is still the possibility that beans will be expensive, even though Trump won. If that is the case, then the attacker will lose all their money, and will not be able to afford to do attacks like this again.

Attacking a market like this necessarily means paying more for something than it is worth, which necessarily means that on average, you are losing a big chunk of the money that you use for manipulations. And everyone who bets against you, on average they are taking your money.

I wrote futarchy onto the blockchain with Amoveo.

Prediction markets are for helping communities of people make decisions that benefit the community.

Whether or not they cause wealth inequality is another question entirely. As long as they help communities come to good decisions, then futarchy is a success.

Peanut butter is for tasting good. Even if peanut butter was causing wealth inequality, it would still achieve its goal of tasting good.

Attempts to manipulate the outcome actually make a prediction market more accurate. Every wrong bet creates a prize for others to come and put the price where it belongs.

It is important to compare futarchy against existing alternatives, instead of some imaginary ideal. Democracy is easy to manipulate. Each voter has little incentive to become an informed voter, and the cost to becoming informed is high. And once informed, each voter has little incentive to vote for what is best. (the personal benefit of a good election result) * (probability that their vote mattered) is practically zero. In this situation, people are vulnerable to bribery and propaganda.