I wonder about this - am I doing a candidate a disservice by hiring them without knowing that there is a non-trivial chance that they'll be fired within 1-2 months? If someone doesn't already have a job, that's fine, but someone might quit a situation where they are suited for one in which they aren't. Or, if someone is a junior developer, they've just spent 2 months before being let go, and has to explain the situation to the next place.

I care about the people I hire as humans and don't want to put them in a bad situation.

I wouldn't say there's a non-trivial chance that they'll be fired in 1-2 months. Being able to effectively screen people is another technical managerial skill. There is a very, very small percentage of candidates that make it through the interview and later turn out to be duds.

I think there are two issues at play:

1. Ineffective managers are terrified of firing people.

2. Ineffective managers rightly or wrongly think they can't screen people without code tests, white boarding...

Like I said in my original comment I look at their Github or any other work portfolio they provide and have a deep discussion about it with them.