Experiment HN: Crowdsourcing Tech Stock Predictions

Re:Experiment HN: Crowdsourcing Tech Stock Predictions by keyle on Tuesday November 30, 2010 @07:29PM (#1956248)

It's more an experiment on chaos theory and dart throwing than "Predictions". I recommend you look at the fundamentals and aggregate the EPS forecasts in relation to the ROE to get a better idea as to where they should be in a year's time. On top of that you need to factor your economy and China's.

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Re:Experiment HN: Crowdsourcing Tech Stock Predictions by zackattack on Tuesday November 30, 2010 @07:32PM (#1956262)

You seem to know what you're talking about. I hope you submit a prediction. I doubt you will, though.

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Re:Experiment HN: Crowdsourcing Tech Stock Predictions by keyle on Tuesday November 30, 2010 @08:04PM (#1956338)

You're right I won't. It's like trying to predict the next lotto numbers.

Fear and greed fuel the market in the short term, so even if you got close 2 days before the deadline, a scare in the market would throw off all your predictions out the window.

All you can really predict is what you believe a stock will be worth (intrinsic value) assuming the EPS forecast is fairly correct, the economy behaves ok and that china doesn't cock up.

edit: I do appreciate anybody taking time to run an experiment though! That's why I voted up your post.

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