We haven't stopped buying tulips, trains, stocks, technology, or real estate. And just as well, we haven't stopped using symbolic AI, single-layer neural nets, ensemble models, expert systems, or logic programming languages. The new topological enhancements to Neural Nets won't ever go away either...but that doesn't mean we won't see a drop in investment once the general public realizes that your neural nets aren't going to learn how to do double-entry accounting any time soon. The AI winter isn't characterized by the technology going away, it is characterized by lofty idealism being shattered and investment dropping back to reflect reality.
Right, but that doesn't match the way I feel the term "AI Winter" has been used. Now I could be mis-interpreting things, but I've always looked at an "AI Winter" as a period of underinvestment, created as an over-reaction to the mechanics you're referring to.
but that doesn't mean we won't see a drop in investment once the general public realizes that your neural nets aren't going to learn how to do double-entry accounting any time soon.
Right, but again, I don't think most people use "AI Winter" to mean a simple "drop in investment". If it were something that straightforward, there would be no need for the "Winter" metaphor.
And that's why I say there may indeed be a drop... an "AI Fall" if you will, that still represents a pull-back of sorts, but perhaps just a less pronounced and extended pullback like we've seen in the past.
less pronounced and extended pullback like we've seen in the past.
should read:
less pronounced and extended pullback than we've seen in the past.
Now it feels to me we are in a design winter again: there are still a lot of designers on staff, but they are relegated to a "touch up" role... They have been moved ahead of implementation (which is good) but they are expected to "touch up" concepts generated by management in a matter of days. Very similar to when designers would get a few days to clean up a UI that was already implemented.
Sort of off topic, but just and example that widespread use and business value doesn't mean something can't fall back into a winter of sorts.
Part of that too, is that I think people now realize that narrow AI is sufficient to create tremendous value, and that it doesn't necessarily matter if the "AGI breakthrough" happens anytime soon or not.
It's hard to be sure, but I don't see the kind of collapse that happened in the past happening anytime soon.