Show HN: Applying Machine Learning to March Madness

Re:Show HN: Applying Machine Learning to March Madness by QuackingJimbo on Monday March 18, 2019 @04:33AM (#19419472)

> One in 9.2 quintillion. Those are the odds that you will correctly pick the winners of all 63 games played over the course of the tournament. Mathematically speaking, there are 2^63 (~9.2 quintillion) number of ways that you can fill the bracket

This is wrong. Many of the games are not even close to 50-50.

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Re:Show HN: Applying Machine Learning to March Madness by dagw on Monday March 18, 2019 @04:35AM (#19419482)

According to: https://math.duke.edu/news/duke-math-professor-says-odds-per... by using all available knowledge from seeding and betting odds you can get your odds down to a mere 1 in 2.4 trillion. Or perhaps even as good as 1 in 128 billion if this guy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6Smkv11Mj4 is to be believed.

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Re:Show HN: Applying Machine Learning to March Madness by jsjohnst on Monday March 18, 2019 @08:08AM (#19420399)

So even in the best case you list (which I share your skepticism of), you are 1,000x more likely to win the MegaMillions or Powerball jackpot than pick the perfect winning grid.

To put the odds of picking a perfect grid by hand in rough perspective, it would be like winning the lottery, boarding a plane that crashes into the ocean, being the only survivor floating in the ocean, but then are struck by lightning 3 times and yet you live, only to then be eaten by a shark, all in a single day.

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Re:Show HN: Applying Machine Learning to March Madness by dagw on Monday March 18, 2019 @08:41AM (#19420547)

So even in the best case you list (which I share your skepticism of), you are 1,000x more likely to win the MegaMillions or Powerball jackpot than pick the perfect winning grid.

That makes me wonder what odds you'd get at the bookmakers for a perfect winning grid.

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Re:Show HN: Applying Machine Learning to March Madness by jsjohnst on Monday March 18, 2019 @07:55PM (#19426592)

I think I remember seeing a prize somewhere of an obscene amount of money (memory is hazy, but was something like over $100M, maybe even a billion) for a perfect winning grid.

Edit: it was a billion.

https://genius.com/Warren-buffett-billion-dollar-march-madne...

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Re:Show HN: Applying Machine Learning to March Madness by dagw on Tuesday March 19, 2019 @05:24AM (#19429255)

Well since submission is free that bet has a positive expected value! Much better than the lottery.

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Re:Show HN: Applying Machine Learning to March Madness by chrisweekly on Monday March 18, 2019 @08:32AM (#19420500)

Yet last year, the "unthinkable" happened, when #1 UVA lost in the 1st round to a 16 seed.

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Re:Show HN: Applying Machine Learning to March Madness by alextheparrot on Monday March 18, 2019 @09:43AM (#19420900)

The odds being in favor of one team does not preclude the other team from winning.

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