Re:Show HN: Applying Machine Learning to March Madness
by rococode on Monday March 18, 2019 @03:51AM
(#19419328)
Cool project! It sounds like you've run this in previous years, so I'm curious - how well has the model done in the past?
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Re:Show HN: Applying Machine Learning to March Madness
by aaaaaaaaaaab on Monday March 18, 2019 @04:57AM
(#19419546)
Probably about as well as trying to predict the result of a coin toss.
Re:Show HN: Applying Machine Learning to March Madness
by throwawaymath on Monday March 18, 2019 @09:07AM
(#19420689)
If that were actually the case, this model would be far and away the best ever developed!
Re:Show HN: Applying Machine Learning to March Madness
by jjuel on Monday March 18, 2019 @10:18AM
(#19421174)
I mean do you really think NCAA basketball games are just a random coin toss? If that were the case wouldn't more than 1 16 seed have won a game? Wouldn't more lower seeds have won the whole tournament? In that case theoretically every team has the same chance to win it all yet the lowest seed ever to win was an 8 seed.
Re:Show HN: Applying Machine Learning to March Madness
by klohto on Monday March 18, 2019 @06:18AM
(#19419908)
So, 50%? :)
Re:Show HN: Applying Machine Learning to March Madness
by adeshpande3 on Monday March 18, 2019 @10:54AM
(#19421538)
Yeah tonmoy linked to the blog post that had the predictions. Unfortunately, the model pretty much predicted a higher probability for the higher seeded team in the matchup which lead to some relatively expected predictions. If I remember correctly, it led to a pretty average percentile (50-60) when I submitted it to the ESPN leaderboards.
Re:Show HN: Applying Machine Learning to March Madness
by tonmoy on Monday March 18, 2019 @09:52AM
(#19420974)
He has predictions from 2017 and 2018 in this blog post I think
https://adeshpande3.github.io/adeshpande3.github.io/Applying...