Same answers on the math. Using a binomial I got 1/9009 for 2+, mostly same answer for 1+ in 150k. Probably rounding differences. Also agreed on asking the right questions. Could be a 1/9000 event given a 1/10million safety expectation, or it could simply be a much more probable event given that our assumption of 1/10million is incorrect. Ironically it could also be that the new plane is even more safe, but we've just experienced an e.g. 1 in 50,000 event. There's lies, damned lies, and statistics.