Re:TLDR Stock Options
by ivanhoe on Monday March 04, 2019 @03:07PM
(#19304832)
What is the probability distribution that startup X will succeed? I'm genuinely asking, I'd love to know how would you approach estimating something like that?
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Building this I used information from CB Insights, which looks at companies that receive VC funding by cohort.
Their most recent report covers companies that raised seed rounds in 2008-2010: https://www.cbinsights.com/research/venture-capital-funnel-2...