Re:U.S. Is a Rich Country with Symptoms of a Developing Nation
by stannol on Saturday February 23, 2019 @03:42PM
(#19235348)
Export is not "only possible" due to the Bretton Woods system, and the rest of your thoughts on exports are just pure unfounded speculation. Germany makes sought-after goods and will continue to do so for all of our lifetimes. They will export and sell them one way or another. Of course there will be ups and downs, but really drastic changes? I highly doubt it, even if the Euro(zone) were to implode, which is looking increasingly unlikely.
Post war Germany has never had significant youth unemployment, and worries about "riots and social upheaval" because of that unemployment? That's a pretty outrageous claim.
Over half of German GDP stems from exports, which is a huge fraction and which is only possible because of the Eurozone and because of the Bretton Woods system. The Bretton Woods system was created by the US to help fight the Cold War by encouraging free trade and the US particularly since the election of Trump is not interested in supporting the system anymore. The Eurozone and the European Central Bank's monetary policy have been preventing the economies of the countries on the periphery of Europe from developing, and those countries will either withdraw from the Eurozone or at least force changes to monetary policy that will be detrimental to Germany's exports.
So it looks like Germany's exports will fall, maybe drastically. Taxes on the profit that German companies make on these exports is how Germany pays for its social programs.
When the economy gets bad in Germany, young Germans cannot find jobs. (France is the same way.) This youth unemployment has gotten so bad once or twice during the postwar period that people start worrying about riots and other kinds of social upheaval, which makes things bad for everyone, not just people needing to find a job. Youth unemployment never gets that bad in the US.
I don't see any challenges to the US similar to those 2 challenges facing Germany.
Although I concede that I probably would have been better off if I had moved to Germany 30 years ago in my 20s, let's see if you still think Germany is markedly better than the US in 15 years.