News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by freediver on Wednesday February 20, 2019 @10:50AM (#19208796)
Depends on your horizon.
Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by yodon on Wednesday February 20, 2019 @10:56AM (#19208861)
> Depends on your horizon

Box office returns dominate the return for a film, set the license price for long term post-theatrical deals, and decay with a very fast exponential from the opening weekend take. It is extremely rare in modern times for a film to turn a poor opening weekend into a high long term return. The film market simply doesn't work that way however nice it would be if it did.

Re:20th Century Fox Uses ML to Predict a Movie Audience by rjf72 on Wednesday February 20, 2019 @12:15PM (#19209640)
I read the comment you're responding to a bit differently.

I think most people can enjoy a really bad movie. Some t-and-a, explosions, a bit of CG - it's all good fun even all you can think about after the movie is how awful it was. But when really bad movies are all there is, they quickly lose their charm. Instead of being one off guilty pleasures, they become the movie industry. And that's about the point you stop watching movies at the theater.

I think this describes many people's transition away from movies. The point of this is that pumping out crap may be optimal in the short run. But in the longrun you end up with suboptimal returns, even when profit is your one and only motivation. Incidentally the same story is true and also being played out in various other industries.

Optimizing for next year's quarterlies is often not the same path to optimizing for earning the most money in the next decade.