The VP/DE ratio just reflects how likely it is to have that level of impact. A VP is typically not just "a great manager", they drive the product vision and ensure you're building the right things. A great engineer can produce similar impact but it's a lot less likely.

> if you actually want to have a chance of moving up to those levels of pay, you had better go into people management

Your own strengths and weaknesses as an individual are are much more important part of this decision than the baseline probabilities of becoming a DE or VP.