News for hackers. Stuff that matters.
Re:Is Earth's Magnetic Field Flipping Soon? by mrspeaker on Friday February 01, 2019 @09:05AM (#19054129)
"While any magnetic-field flip would still be thousands of years away...". Sneaky sentence right at the end. Sure the last one happened 700,000 years ago, so it is "soon", the but article made it sound like it was happening tomorrow!
Re:Is Earth's Magnetic Field Flipping Soon? by ChuckMcM on Friday February 01, 2019 @02:39PM (#19057686)
There are a couple of issues here and it is important to be careful about not conflating them.

One, is the question of "how long" does a flip take? There is some evidence that it can take as few as 100 years[1], the previous consensus estimate (2004) was about 7000 years[2]. That is important because the faster it happens the more havoc it is likely to cause. If it happens over thousands of years then humans will adapt to a 'non constant' compass direction and find other ways to navigate. For example, GPS 'north' which can always point you to 0,0 on the globe.

The second thing is the timing. The pole is currently "racing" towards Siberia[3], so it may have already started flipping. At 30 miles a year it would take 416 years to fully flip. That is well within the 7000 year window and only 4x the 100 year window.

It is one of the more interesting confounding influences on climate change as changes in the magnetic field strength and orientation can change the amount of energy that makes it into the atmosphere from the Sun. That works both ways, either reducing the energy (more charged particles deflected) making it colder or increasing the energy (more charged particles impact the atmosphere) making it warmer.

[1] https://news.berkeley.edu/2014/10/14/earths-magnetic-field-c...

[2] https://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=100358

[3] https://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/climate-weather/stories/ma...

Re:Is Earth's Magnetic Field Flipping Soon? by njarboe on Friday February 01, 2019 @03:01PM (#19057910)
Previous estimates on the time it takes for a flip to happen are in the 1000-30000 year range[1]. That paper gives a 7000 yr average but the variance on the time it takes is likely large. The Berkeley article you linked to is on this paper[2] which makes a claim of that short flipping time. People in the field think it is quite an unlikely short period of time for a flip and we would need more evidence to firmly believe they can happen this fast. Sediments are notoriously complicated on how they record the magnetic field and the rates at which they are deposited at are difficult to determine.

Source: I did my PhD work on the Steens Mountain reversal. It is the Earth's reversal with the most transitional directions recorded in much more reliable volcanic rocks. This was possible because of the huge volume of the Columbia River Basalts that were erupting at that time around 16.7 million years ago. Unfortunately it happened so long ago that direct radioactive dating of its length is impossible with current methods.

[1]https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02459

[2]https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggu287

Re:Is Earth's Magnetic Field Flipping Soon? by j1vms on Friday February 01, 2019 @06:16PM (#19059717)
> ...the faster it happens the more havoc it is likely to cause. If it happens over thousands of years then humans will adapt to a 'non constant' compass direction and find other ways to navigate.

Actually the more pressing matter regards animals that employ magnetoreception (birds, bacteria even!) where a change like this might be particularly devastating. This of course assumes that there is not already some undiscovered non-genetic mechanism to help with adjusting, say socially or physiologically. Human technology could adapt in at most a matter of decades, while genetic adaptation would takes orders of magnitude longer.

Re:Is Earth's Magnetic Field Flipping Soon? by AznHisoka on Friday February 01, 2019 @09:09AM (#19054157)
It's like those articles that hedge their outrageous predictions. "Facebook is probably going to be supplanted in 5 years, but then again they own Instagram and WhatsApp, so they might be fine". What is it going to be, Nostradamus?!
Re:Is Earth's Magnetic Field Flipping Soon? by virgilp on Friday February 01, 2019 @09:56AM (#19054525)
It's either going to be supplanted, or it won't be. There is no third option. You're welcome.
Re:Is Earth's Magnetic Field Flipping Soon? by elbrian on Friday February 01, 2019 @10:49AM (#19055040)
You seem confused. No one implied that there was a third option.
Re:Is Earth's Magnetic Field Flipping Soon? by stcredzero on Friday February 01, 2019 @12:25PM (#19056160)
False. Facebook could retain all the Boomers, but coexist for awhile with other social media dominating the millennial market.
Re:Is Earth's Magnetic Field Flipping Soon? by Izkata on Friday February 01, 2019 @02:27PM (#19057557)
I wonder why this is downvoted... MySpace and Facebook coexisted in a very similar dynamic for several years before Facebook opened to everyone.
Re:Is Earth's Magnetic Field Flipping Soon? by lb1lf on Friday February 01, 2019 @09:29AM (#19054309)
Discussing an unstable mountainous area with a geologist once, he made it sound like collapse was imminent, so I asked him when to expect it. "Oh, any day, now - definitely in the next 50,000 years or so..."
Re:Is Earth's Magnetic Field Flipping Soon? by magduf on Friday February 01, 2019 @11:52AM (#19055783)
That's the problem with geology like that: the collapse really could happen next week, or not for another 10,000 years.
Re:Is Earth's Magnetic Field Flipping Soon? by cowboybeboop on Friday February 01, 2019 @09:42AM (#19054408)
And you are just telling me now?
Re:Is Earth's Magnetic Field Flipping Soon? by justinator on Friday February 01, 2019 @02:23PM (#19057521)
On the flip side: "Geologic Time includes Now"
Re:Is Earth's Magnetic Field Flipping Soon? by qrbLPHiKpiux on Friday February 01, 2019 @10:38AM (#19054927)
Soon in space-time does mean hundreds of thousands of years. The masses do not appreciate this, respectfully.
Re:Is Earth's Magnetic Field Flipping Soon? by balabaster on Friday February 01, 2019 @11:22AM (#19055437)
Not even in space time. If you consider the age of this planet, hundreds of thousands of years is still a tiny slice of time - especially given that even if you accommodate the possibility that humans have been around possibly only for a few hundred thousand years, in the grand scheme of the 4.53 billion years of existence of earth if reports are considered accurate, it's a blip on the radar, we barely even existed.
Re:Is Earth's Magnetic Field Flipping Soon? by starlig-ht on Friday February 01, 2019 @05:58PM (#19059608)
And we have only gained the knowledge of this as a species within the last hundred years.
Re:Is Earth's Magnetic Field Flipping Soon? by dugluak on Friday February 01, 2019 @11:09AM (#19055275)
They don't understand the implications. There are many people who take this seriously and dig holes underground, spend thousands of dollars to prepare themselves for the D day ....
Re:Is Earth's Magnetic Field Flipping Soon? by darkpuma on Friday February 01, 2019 @11:34AM (#19055569)
I'm stockpiling orgonite right now to protect my family. When the magnetic poles flip that stuff is going to be worth it's weight in gold!
Re:Is Earth's Magnetic Field Flipping Soon? by iamthepieman on Friday February 01, 2019 @12:42PM (#19056347)
That was a rabbit hole i did not need to spend the last 30 minutes on.

For those who don't have the time like I didn't

Organite is a substance made of resin metals and quartz that balances and harmonizes Bio-energy (known as orgone). Orgone is analogous to chi or prana and is a type of bio-energy that reverses the effect of entropy[0] It seems to be a mix of crystal healing and EMF grounding (also known as earthing)

It can:

  - Neutralizes emf radiation.
  - Clears negative energy.
  - Aids in meditation.
  - Supports restful sleep.
  - Enhances lucid dreaming.
  - Relieves stress.
  - Purifies the living area.
  - Can detoxify water.
It is, of course, completely bogus.

[0]If your theory is found to be against the second law of theromodynamics, I give you no hope; there is nothing for it but to collapse in deepest humiliation. - Arthur Eddington

Re:Is Earth's Magnetic Field Flipping Soon? by pmoriarty on Friday February 01, 2019 @02:17PM (#19057460)
The rabbit hole goes deeper than that.

You should research Wilhelm Reich[1], a student of Freud's who came up with the term "orgone", who fled to the US to escape the Nazis only to have his writings confiscated and burnt by the US government, which imprisoned him until he died.

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilhelm_Reich

Re:Is Earth's Magnetic Field Flipping Soon? by dTal on Friday February 01, 2019 @04:22PM (#19058767)
"Until he died" being a year, days before his parole, lest anyone think the US government sentences people to life in prison for quackery.

I think this is underappreciated ethical dilemma, rather like Typhoid Mary. I don't think that Wilhelm Reich thought of himself as a quack, or a fraud - he was more of a kind of technological mystic. While he himself was doubtless earnest, this kind of thing really is memetically dangerous - Scientology, for example, is a deliberate and successful attempt to weaponize it. Even now, people do crazy things like "seed" areas with "orgonite" to dispel "negative energy" - that is, they litter the ground with bits of metal encased with resin. A whole religion of woo, just from a few years of exposure to Reich's ideas.

So what is one to do with someone who is earnestly good-intentioned, highly charismatic, and completely stark-raving mad?

Re:Is Earth's Magnetic Field Flipping Soon? by krapp on Friday February 01, 2019 @04:31PM (#19058850)
>So what is one to do with someone who is earnestly good-intentioned, highly charismatic, and completely stark-raving mad?

Ignore them as you should any other crackpot, charlatan or fraud. Don't waste your energy, time or money on them except to be entertained.

Re:Is Earth's Magnetic Field Flipping Soon? by njarboe on Friday February 01, 2019 @04:17PM (#19058729)
"imprisoned him until he died"

True? He died a year in to a two year sentence for violating an injunction against him from committing fraud by selling his orgone accumulators.

Re:Is Earth's Magnetic Field Flipping Soon? by pvaldes on Friday February 01, 2019 @09:05PM (#19060541)
But every time it rains You're here in my head Like the sun coming out Ooh, I just know that something good is going to happen...
Re:Is Earth's Magnetic Field Flipping Soon? by sifoobar on Friday February 01, 2019 @01:47PM (#19057152)
"It is paradoxical, yet true, to say, that the more we know, the more ignorant we become in the absolute sense, for it is only through enlightenment that we become conscious of our limitations. Precisely one of the most gratifying results of intellectual evolution is the continuous opening up of new and greater prospects."

~Nikola Tesla

Re:Is Earth's Magnetic Field Flipping Soon? by ben_w on Friday February 01, 2019 @05:27PM (#19059370)
You just reminded me that my mum was big on homeopathy and regularly gave me homeopathic sand as a kid: https://dailymed.nlm.nih.gov/dailymed/fda/fdaDrugXsl.cfm?set...

She also liked Bach flower remedies, and took one in particular for her memory…

She now has severe Alzheimer’s and, conversationally speaking, is no better than a Markov chain with a ~1000 symbol vocabulary.

Re:Is Earth's Magnetic Field Flipping Soon? by lozaning on Friday February 01, 2019 @01:49PM (#19057167)
Sounds like this stuff would be amazing to put in my ham shack!
Re:Is Earth's Magnetic Field Flipping Soon? by Diederich on Friday February 01, 2019 @01:21PM (#19056821)
> It is, of course, completely bogus.

So sure are you, hmmm??

Re:Is Earth's Magnetic Field Flipping Soon? by westmeal on Friday February 01, 2019 @01:41PM (#19057069)
Try putting that rock in toxic water and drink it and we'll see what happens.
Re:Is Earth's Magnetic Field Flipping Soon? by VRay on Friday February 01, 2019 @02:14PM (#19057427)
I think a rock that makes you immortal would be worth a hell of a lot more than its weight in gold..
Re:Is Earth's Magnetic Field Flipping Soon? by Diederich on Friday February 01, 2019 @05:06PM (#19059202)
Ach, I was joking y'all.
Re:Is Earth's Magnetic Field Flipping Soon? by legohead on Friday February 01, 2019 @12:47PM (#19056411)
Betteridge's law of headlines: "Any headline that ends in a question mark can be answered by the word no."

If we were pretty certain this was going to actually happen, the article would be: The Pole is flipping soon! Here's what you need to know. etc

Re:Is Earth's Magnetic Field Flipping Soon? by luma on Friday February 01, 2019 @01:26PM (#19056885)
When dealing with geologists and cosmologists, 1000 years is the textbook definition of "soon".
Re:Is Earth's Magnetic Field Flipping Soon? by throwawaymath on Friday February 01, 2019 @02:45PM (#19057744)
Quite right. In fact on geological and cosmological timescales, "in 1000 years" essentially means, "momentarily."

The modern measurements which underpin this observation have interesting parallels to the Vedic timekeeping of the Upanishads. Barely a (Brahma) day has passed since the beginning of the universe, and orders of magnitude more time must pass before Vishnu will blink for the first time :)