Could you provide a cost breakdown of the first 10 years of raising a child in, say, SV or NY? I can't follow your thinking here at all. Childcare, from what I hear is immensely expensive, and after a certain age, you need a bigger home. Conversely, staying without kids means you don't spend on any of those things. What have I missed?

You don't "need" a bigger home. You can perfectly have 2 children in a 900sqft 3 bedroom appartment.

But you don't need a 3 bedroom appartment for 2 people.

I'm sorry but you don't seem to know what kids kost. Rent, childcare, clothing, food plus only one income are in no relation to some electronic toys or a fancy holiday.

I have two kids. I must be doing it wrong.

> They have lots of adult toys and other conveniences, but somehow can't find the money to raise a child.

I'm German and affected by this. It begins with being unable to rent an apartment with enough space for a kid and ends with "how to afford a car in this city".

<tone-deaf> But Europe has good public transit everywhere. Surely you can take rail + bus + walk to get anywhere you want to go even with kids.</tone deaf>

Dragging toddler around on public transit is a massive PITA. One is doable but two is hell.

The quality of public transit varies between cities. My parents for example raised two children without having a car.

    > these DINKs refuse to sacrifice anything materially
    > to have children. They have lots of adult toys and
    > other conveniences, but somehow can't find the
    > money to raise a child.

Well, some DINK's don't want children. Not everyone has to reproduce. There's many different factors involved here than material comfort.

Also, in many American cities, public school is totally out of the question (if you actually care about having well-educated children). Families either have to send their kids to elite private schools at ~20K/per year OR they have to move to somewhere on the periphery of the city where schools are good but you have other trade-offs in time or money. These aren't selfish materialistic concerns they're real obstacles that cause people to defer having children.

Elite private schools in SF and NY are closer to 40k/yr. Catholic schools tend to be much less, with elite high schools in the 20-25k range, though it’s not an exact substitution. Catholic schools teach Catholicism, and while students are not obliged to be catholic, they must attend religious services. The catholic 20k tuition schools also tend to be larger than independent elite privates, though many of them are reasonably elite as measured by sat scores and colleges attended.

This all supports your point, other than to say it’s even more expensive than you’ve indicated.

> refuse to sacrifice anything materially to have children

There are also those that have the best motives for not having children - namely that the country is getting worse, and why inflict a negative future on them? Environmental destruction, overcrowding, pollution, insane property prices, worsening opportunities to get on in life, rampant crime and drugs with disinterested policing and lax punishment apart from against those that are legitimately defending their rights (who are punished harshly), general undermining of traditional values, etc..

Oh but of course I'm just a bigoted dinosaur for holding these thoughts.