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Re:Why does APT not use HTTPS? by geofft on Monday January 21, 2019 @04:18PM (#18963714)
It would take them half an hour to write that custom software. Under what threat model is "nation-states that can't spend half an hour writing code" a meaningful adversary? Note in particular that they can identify users by previous traffic statistics (and just normal traffic flow statistics that might be kept as a routine log by any network administrator, even); they don't need to write the code in advance. Given the number of bytes transferred, the times, and an archive of the state of the Debian archive (which is publicly available), they can always identify past downloads.

(Would it help if I wrote that code right now and put it on GitHub?)

Re:Why does APT not use HTTPS? by dane-pgp on Monday January 21, 2019 @04:55PM (#18963974)
> It would take them half an hour to write that custom software.

It would take a software engineer half an hour to write that custom software. It would take a government years to amass the political will to target such a small section of the population, and then potentially hundreds of thousands of dollars for a government contractor to offer a solution and implement it.

There's always going to be a big difference in threat level between a piece of software which already exists and a piece of software that could exist. For example, when you're snatched off the streets by the secret police, and they go to investigate what you've been doing in the country, they might be able to request from HQ a list of HTTP addresses fetched from the IP address associated with your apartment, but they're unlikely to be able to request that HQ write some software to go back retrospectively and count bytes of individual connections you made.

> (Would it help if I wrote that code right now and put it on GitHub?)

No, but it would help if you wrote a patch for APT which made it use HTTP range requests to hide the size of the files it downloads. That should only take half an hour, right?

Re:Why does APT not use HTTPS? by geofft on Monday January 21, 2019 @06:16PM (#18964541)
I continue to be confused by this threat model where all government agencies you're worried about are plagued by massive levels of US-style governmental bureaucracy and can't get anything done, yet they're capable of being meaningful threats. (Also where the only entities you're worried about are government entities.)
Re:Why does APT not use HTTPS? by dane-pgp on Tuesday January 22, 2019 @04:38AM (#18967155)
The entities I'm worried about have bought off-the-shelf surveillance tools which record the HTTP requests associated with each IP/MAC address. This is a minimum viable product for governments and ISPs (not to mention businesses, like hotels and coffee shops), and it is reasonable to think that such a system is deployed on orders of magnitude more networks than a system that tries to infer Debian package downloads from counting bytes of HTTPS traffic.