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Re:Company Update by purple_ducks on Friday January 18, 2019 @06:42AM (#18938620)
It sure seems like Tesla is the foremost reason car manufacturers have started to fully acknowledge electric is the near(& medium/long term)-future and not just some check box/compliance car to satisfy "well meaning bureaucrats".

Existing European/Japanese/US car manufacturers were happy enough to trundle along with existing ICE cars as it required less effort & gave better profits.

They & Chinese (electric) car/bus makers are the reason our planet is going to improve - ~0 air pollution in populated areas and massive reduction in nuisance engine noises.

Re:Company Update by radiorental on Friday January 18, 2019 @06:55AM (#18938674)
The most popular selling electric car is a Nissan leaf, has been on the market for 8 years, and it costs half of a model 3 (ignoring specs)
Re:Company Update by virgilp on Friday January 18, 2019 @07:48AM (#18938919)
Leaf didn't change anything.

What changed the general attitude was half a milion people that pre-ordered Model3 with $1000 cash advance, in a matter of days, without knowing almost anything about it (other than "it's a Tesla").

[edit] Why the downvote? That event was obviously a huge wake-up call that proved to everyone there is real customer demand for electric cars, and that existing manufacturers are risking their future if they don't jump on the bandwagon.

Re:Company Update by radiorental on Friday January 18, 2019 @08:19AM (#18939073)
> Leaf didn't change anything.

Citation needed.

Nissan has sold 400,000 of them to date.

I believe that once the initial backorder is addressed and Model 3's get some miles under their belts we will see the various subpar engineering & manufacturing issues highlighted in the teardowns come back to bite.

https://www.motortrend.com/news/tesla-model-3-teardown-decon...

The model 3 excels where the SV talent was brought to bear but it's long term durability is clearly suspect; too many parts, too many fasteners on too heavy a frame. And that will have serious consequences for the brand over time.

Re:Company Update by jdietrich on Friday January 18, 2019 @09:50AM (#18939630)
Most people in the industry will concede that Tesla forced everyone else to up their game. Tesla were unreasonably ambitious, but that ambition lit a fire under the established players.

Between 2010 and 2015, the Leaf had a 24kWh battery. They added a 30kWh option in 2016, then launched an all-new model in 2017 with a 40kWh battery. At this year's CES, Nissan announced a 64kWh model. There's a clear inflection point that coincides with the announcement of the Model 3, which is matched by several other manufacturers. The huge amount of media attention and customer interest convinced the motor industry that there is a substantial latent demand for affordable EVs with >200mi range.

It's perfectly reasonable to argue that established manufacturers are making better EVs because the technology improved, but Tesla drove a lot of that improvement. They were the first manufacturer to grasp the significance of battery thermal management, something that Nissan is still struggling with. They were the first to demonstrate the improvements in interior capacity and comfort that come from a purpose-built EV platform rather than retrofitting electric propulsion to an ICE platform. The threat posed by the Gigafactory persuaded/forced LG, Samsung and Panasonic to seriously ramp up production of 21700 cells.

Tesla aren't a great car company in my opinion, I think they're hugely over-valued, I think there's a real chance that they'll be bankrupt within the next five years, but they did something very important by taking a moonshot on a truly modern EV.

Re:Company Update by virgilp on Friday January 18, 2019 @08:31AM (#18939127)
Let me rephrase: I can't name a single market development that I can convincingly argue was significantly influenced by the launch (or success) of Nissan Leaf.

Nissan is way more effective than Tesla at mass-production, yes. But there's not one single market where Leaf is their most successful model (certainly true for 2017, I suspect for 2018 htat's also true).

[edit] Maybe that's true; I'm not saying that Tesla will win the market long term.

To make an analogy: you can say Tesla is Blackberry, not Apple. Maybe they don't "own" the smartphone market, and maybe in the end they day - BUT, they left their mark. Thay have had decisive influence in the industry.

The Nissan Leaf? From where I stand, it looks like a Nokia Communicator - or worse. A product that does sell, true - but mostly because of the parent company; eventually it doesn't leave a lasting mark.

Re:Company Update by sokoloff on Friday January 18, 2019 @09:19AM (#18939425)
I daily drive a LEAF for 4 years now. It's not the most technically advanced electric car (for sure!). It doesn't have the longest range. What it does have is "incredibly cheap (among new cars)" "widely available" and "very low maintenance (mine has literally only needed wiper blades and has never darkened the service bay of the dealership since delivery)". Price is a feature.

I suspect the LEAF has done a lot more to drive Chargepoint network adoption, as just one example of a market development where the LEAF is more influential than Tesla.

Re:Company Update by Thlom on Friday January 18, 2019 @09:29AM (#18939489)
The Leaf is by far Nissans most successful model in Norway. It's actually the most sold car in Norway. Nissan sold 3 times as many Leafs as Tesla sold Model X (the most sold Tesla in Norway last year).
Re:Company Update by virgilp on Friday January 18, 2019 @12:04PM (#18940715)
Nissan breaks their revenue by " Japan/ China / North America / Europe / Other Markets ". Norway is part of Europe, and in Europe Qashqai sold better.

https://www.nissan-global.com/EN/DOCUMENT/PDF/AR/2018/AR18_E...

Re:Company Update by blub on Friday January 18, 2019 @09:31AM (#18939506)
No, the Leaf is like the AK-74 and Tesla is a Steyr AUG.
Re:Company Update by Someone on Friday January 18, 2019 @08:29AM (#18939120)
It may have been news to the general public, but chances are car manufacturers didn’t really need awake up, as they already had drawn conclusions from the sales figures of the Leaf. Chances are, too, that they thought “if we offered a car below cost, we also could rake in orders”.

I think it will be years before we know whether Tesla’s gamble will pay of for the company.

Re:Company Update by codeulike on Friday January 18, 2019 @09:06AM (#18939346)
No its not. Leaf led in 2014, but not since then.
Re:Company Update by radiorental on Friday January 18, 2019 @09:10AM (#18939371)
Re-read my comment. It has sold more units that any other electric car.
Re:Company Update by codeulike on Friday January 18, 2019 @09:13AM (#18939388)
Right, so its most popular when viewed over a long timeframe because it was one of the first decent ones.
Re:Company Update by joenathanone on Friday January 18, 2019 @07:47AM (#18938910)
I don't know where you are getting your numbers, but the top selling electric car is the Tesla Model 3.

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/the-top-5-most-popular-ca...

https://cleantechnica.com/2018/09/09/tesla-model-3-becomes-1...

Re:Company Update by radiorental on Friday January 18, 2019 @07:58AM (#18938971)
You are aware there a whole bunch of other parts of the planet?

Total worldwide sales of the leaf are north of 400,000 units.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nissan_Leaf

"Global sales totaled over 380,000 Leafs by December 2018, making the Leaf the world's all-time best-selling highway-capable electric car."

Re:Company Update by mikekchar on Friday January 18, 2019 @08:15AM (#18939061)
I've been looking for a while: Can you furnish a link for worldwide sales of Leafs for 2018 (or at least several months). I've seen several estimates of 7K per month, which would be 84K units, but no actual figures.
Re:Company Update by radiorental on Friday January 18, 2019 @08:20AM (#18939082)
Updated my parent comment. I took my numbers from wikipedia. My understanding is that Leaf sales have declined as better cars have come on the market.

That said, I was providing a counterpoint to the OP's statement that Japanese manufacturers weren't doing anything, when the facts clearly indicate otherwise.

Re:Company Update by purple_ducks on Friday January 18, 2019 @08:52AM (#18939259)
Your fact is that a (singular) Japanese manufacturer made an electric car which was ~popular. Even if it was the most popular selling electric car, it's dwarfed by sales of every other type of car (on every continent). Despite being on sale for ~8 years in Europe, it's still a novelty seeing one on the road. The Leaf wasn't the kick up the arse that other manufacturers needed, the Tesla 3 arguably was.

This is in spite of Europe being a massive consumer of Japanese cars in general(Nissan & Toyota in particular).

Assuming Tesla 3 doesn't get down to sub €35k price in the next year, Hynudai Kona seems like it will be the best selling EV in Europe in 2019 (provided the end dealers don't mess it up)

Some other Japanese manufacturers:

Toyota, Honda, Daihatsu, Suzuki, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Subaru, Isuzu

Barring Toyota who at least made some effort with the Prius. What have the rest of those industry players done for EV adoption/advancement? Nothing. Some (even in 2019) still haven't made inroads into EV.

Re:Company Update by mikekchar on Friday January 18, 2019 @06:51PM (#18944243)
As I live in Japan, I can help you with this. Mitsubishi has an electric vehicle and also partners with Nissan to maintain the charging infrastructure. Here's a Wikipedia link to Mitsubishi's vehicle: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitsubishi_i-MiEV It's not as popular as the leaf, but I see a fair number of them around here.

Toyota and Mazda have made a joint venture for electric vehicles. They will be releasing their first vehicles in 2020. I'm not sure why they waited this long. I think the main reason for Toyota was that the Prius has been absolutely dominating the Japanese market for years, thanks in part to rebates from the government. I think it's the normal desire of a big company to avoid cannibalizing their successful sales. As for Mazda, they bet big on their turbine engine and I think they didn't have enough money to invest in R&D -- you will note that they never made a hybrid.

I have no idea what Honda is doing. At one point they claimed that all of their cars were going to have electric drive trains. However, they put all of their eggs in the hydrogen infrastructure that almost certainly isn't going to pan out. They have stopped production of the hybrid Insight in Japan, so I don't really know what their next move is. Apparently they have the Clarity (a plug in hybrid) which I've never seen in Japan. However, I would not discount them as, like I said, they've seen the electric writing on the wall for a long time.

I was just about to say that I would be surprised if Suzuki puts out an electric vehicle. The main office is literally down the street from my mother in laws place and I know lots of people who work there. However, I just did a google search and it appears that Suzuki has joined Toyota and Mazda in their joint venture and will release an EV in 2020 (however, reading between the lines, I think it might be a plugin hybrid aimed at continental Asian markets).

As for Daihatsu, they have made some concept EV cars. I've got an article from 2010 where they made an EV version of the Mira. Keep in mind that Daihatsu has been experimenting with EV for a long time. They did the EV1 in 1973! They also have a whole range of commercial "cars" (more like golf carts, really) that you frequently see on Japanese roads. Basically one-seaters used for delivering things. I don't actually expect them to enter into the market seriously for at least 5 years, though, because they don't make expensive cars. Although the prices have risen a bit recently, the main thing about Daihatsu has been that you can buy a decent car for ~$10K. It's just not feasible to build EVs at that price point without going the golf cart route, I think.

Subaru used to sell an EV in Japan. It didn't do very well and I've probably only seen it once or twice on the road. I think they are currently out of the market, but apparently have plans to re-enter in 2021.

I don't know anything about Isuzu (except that they make a shit ton of kei-tra - ubiquitous white light "pickup" truck - that every single farmer in Japan owns). Apparently they have an electric truck, but it is quite big -- for hauling containers, etc. For consumer vehicles, I think they are in the same boat as Daihatsu -- their bread an butter is dirt cheap trucks that just aren't going to be feasible in EV forms for a while.

One of the things that might surprise you is that I've never, ever seen a Tesla on the road in Japan. Probably they don't sell them here. Nor have I seen a Chevy volt. In fact I have not seen a single EV that isn't Japanese. If I didn't read HN, I would have the impression that Japanese manufacturers were the only companies making EVs. Of course, we know that's not true, but it's easy to get a strange perspective when you only experience things in one country.

Having said that, I'll be curious to see if Toyota's decision to wait before making an EV will pay off. I tend to think that Nissan and Mitsubishi (having had EVs on the road for 8 years now) will have an advantage. However, it occurs to me that Nissan and Mitsubishi can't have been making much (if any) profit on their EV program, while Toyota has been making buckets off of the Prius. Also, Toyota, Mazda and apparently Suzuki are pooling their resources, which will reduce their initial cost to market, so it might actually pay off. Only time will tell.

But this is just to say that Japanese manufacturers have not been sitting on their hands (with the possible exception of Honda -- I have no idea what they are doing).

Re:Company Update by mikekchar on Friday January 18, 2019 @08:58AM (#18939294)
Ah. From the same page I can generate the results I wanted. Total global sales until 2017 was 303,678. As the quote that Wikipedia has is "more than 380K" up to December 2018, we can probably assume at least 80K units for all of 2018.

Wikipedia is telling me that Tesla delivered over 240K cars in 2018, which surprises me greatly.

Re:Company Update by rmrfrmrf on Friday January 18, 2019 @11:55AM (#18940619)
Yes, Musk saw that there was need for the uber-wealthy (who produce the vast majority of carbon emissions) to signal their views on climate change via luxury sportscars, and, regardless of how badly he's exploiting workers, you can't deny that he's achieved lukewarm success. I mean, wow, less than 4% profit off of all your employees working 80 hour workweeks? Truly earth-shattering stuff right there.