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Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by djrobstep on Wednesday January 16, 2019 @06:59PM (#18926927)
Bogle's greatest legacy might be... socialism.

Index funds are slowly consuming more and more capital. To achieve democratic socialism smoothly, all we have to do is set up state-owned index funds, and let them keep growing until they've accumulated all of the capital.

Voila, full democratic ownership of the means of production!

Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by asdfasgasdgasdg on Wednesday January 16, 2019 @11:03PM (#18928271)
This makes no sense whatsoever. The state does not have sufficient resources to provide the services it has already committed to. The annual deficit is more than a trillion dollars. Suppose we were willing to double this to purchase securities, and further suppose that this had no knock on effects for security prices. It would still take half a decade to buy just the assets held by Vanguard. Although this is large, this is still far smaller than the assets in the public markets overall. At best you'd have achieved ownership of a small fraction of the means of production. But in exchange your sovereign debt would be staggering. It probably just wouldn't be possible, because nobody would be willing to lend enough money for such a project.
Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by djrobstep on Thursday January 17, 2019 @01:44AM (#18928870)
No need to borrow, just nationalize.
Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by asdfasgasdgasdg on Thursday January 17, 2019 @07:50AM (#18930356)
Of course you could do that, but you can do that with or without index funds. The two are orthogonal.
Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by conanbatt on Wednesday January 16, 2019 @07:05PM (#18926987)
If the private market gives index-funds at no cost to the state, why state owned index funds :S.
Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by djrobstep on Wednesday January 16, 2019 @10:04PM (#18927976)
I'm not sure what you mean.
Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by conanbatt on Wednesday January 16, 2019 @10:37PM (#18928153)
What is the interest in having the state manage something at a cost when it is already free for its citizens.
Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by djrobstep on Wednesday January 16, 2019 @11:05PM (#18928281)
It wouldn't provide index fund services, it would literally own the funds and thus the assets.
Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by nicky0 on Thursday January 17, 2019 @12:56AM (#18928706)
An index fund without customers is not really an index fund. It's just a private investment trust.

Basically you are saying the state should just slowly buy stock in every company until it owns every company.

Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by djrobstep on Thursday January 17, 2019 @02:24AM (#18929018)
It would have a customer: the public.

> Basically you are saying the state should just slowly buy stock in every company until it owns every company.

That's right. The goal is full public ownership of the means of production.

Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by nicky0 on Thursday January 17, 2019 @08:13AM (#18930499)
Not sure you have really thought this through.
Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by conanbatt on Thursday January 17, 2019 @02:47AM (#18929102)
The state is not the public.
Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by djrobstep on Thursday January 17, 2019 @03:49AM (#18929322)
In a democratic society, it is.
Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by nicky0 on Friday January 18, 2019 @04:14AM (#18938058)
No, in a democratic soceity the state is a servant of the public.
Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by chucksmash on Wednesday January 16, 2019 @10:19PM (#18928058)
Can't get around paywall to read TFA right now, but Vanguard funds are famously cheap in terms of fees.
Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by mertd on Wednesday January 16, 2019 @07:07PM (#18927004)
It is unclear how index funds would function without someone doing price discovery (i.e., active investors).
Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by OscarCunningham on Wednesday January 16, 2019 @07:14PM (#18927064)
I'm not convinced by the index-funds-socialism thing, but I did once have a fun realisation about index funds owning the market.

Because of short-selling, index funds could own all the market or more and active funds could still exist. For example we could imagine that index funds grow until they're 105% of the market, and active funds own 5% of the market long and 10% of it short. That adds up: 105% + 5% - 10% = 100%. And the active funds would still be doing all the price discovery. Of course the index funds wouldn't have all the assets-under-management, those would be split in the ratio 105:15 (with 10 of that 15 being collateral for the shorts).

In other words: it doesn't matter if index funds own all the shares, active funds can just make side bets with each other.

Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by nostrademons on Wednesday January 16, 2019 @08:21PM (#18927463)
Hmm. I wonder if the same thing could happen in the cryptocurrency markets, where literally 100% of Bitcoin holders lose their private keys and yet we still have active, liquid price discovery consisting of speculators making side bets on BitMex.
Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by dfischer on Wednesday January 16, 2019 @09:45PM (#18927863)
Gamblers gonna gamble.
Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by pbreit on Wednesday January 16, 2019 @10:23PM (#18928077)
Isn’t a mere 51% effective ownership?
Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by discodave on Thursday January 17, 2019 @12:49AM (#18928681)
Not for SNAP, Facebook, Google and others with gerrymandered share classes.
Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by pm90 on Wednesday January 16, 2019 @11:01PM (#18928264)
Simple: there will always be active investors.

With the progress AI is making, I predict a future where humans-run firms will mostly go out of business. What will emerge are companies that are great at training models that then act as active investors. These models bet against each other and some emerge as winners.

Ultimately, the models that make the most bank (sorry couldn't resist) will be the ones smart enough to make its decisions based on public data from companies, social media etc.

Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by discodave on Thursday January 17, 2019 @12:48AM (#18928670)
> I predict a future where humans-run firms will mostly go out of business. What will emerge are companies that are great at training models that then act as active investors. These models bet against each other and some emerge as winners.

This is already happening, HFT, Two Sigma Investments, many hedge funds. And they don't just use public data, they work really hard to get as much proprietary information as they can. Just one example: https://www.cnbc.com/id/38722872

Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by cbailes on Thursday January 17, 2019 @04:03AM (#18929382)
For anyone interested in learning more, here’s a compendium on deep trading:

https://github.com/cbailes/awesome-deep-trading

Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by QML on Wednesday January 16, 2019 @09:10PM (#18927690)
Can't mention this without posting an article by Matt Levine on this topic [1].

[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2016-08-24/are-in...

Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by lewis500 on Wednesday January 16, 2019 @08:21PM (#18927468)
Why would a country want to buy up only shares of companies in that country? You could have a large sovereign wealth fund, but most countries are very small and it would not make sense to only buy domestic stocks.
Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by Kalium on Wednesday January 16, 2019 @07:11PM (#18927034)
Aren't those called Sovereign Wealth Funds?
Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by toomuchtodo on Wednesday January 16, 2019 @07:14PM (#18927061)
They are. Think of Vanguard as a US sovereign wealth fund that hasn’t reached full participation yet (and without the natural resource extraction bootstrapping).

If that’s a strange thought, consider that the Bank Of Japan is a significant owner of equities on the Nikkei.

Disclaimer: Vanguard customer

Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by closeparen on Thursday January 17, 2019 @02:02AM (#18928930)
An investor’s ownership of Vanguard is proportional to his investment. So no, not at all.
Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by pm90 on Wednesday January 16, 2019 @11:05PM (#18928280)
Wow. I never thought of it that way, but this is so true.

I'm interested in this question: would the US economy be where it is today without index funds? Or is it the index funds like Vanguard that allowed millions of Americans a cheap, safe way to predictably grow their wealth?

The reason I ask is that throughout American history, its the banking sector that was responsible for financial crises and a loss of wealth for most Americans. Have index funds plugged this hole and allowed the US to grow?

Yeah yeah I know about 2008 etc. but that _was_ caused mostly by active investors.

Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by toomuchtodo on Wednesday January 16, 2019 @11:17PM (#18928342)
> would the US economy be where it is today without index funds? Or is it the index funds like Vanguard that allowed millions of Americans a cheap, safe way to predictably grow their wealth?

Yes.

Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by JBSay on Thursday January 17, 2019 @02:32AM (#18929052)
Something tells me you don't understand financial markets.
Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by djrobstep on Thursday January 17, 2019 @03:56AM (#18929355)
Something tells me your comment is motivated by class politics, rather than the mechanics of financial markets.
Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by jjeaff on Wednesday January 16, 2019 @07:15PM (#18927069)
I'm not sure I see a connection between Bogle's work and putting public funds into index funds.

You could out public funds into any investment and end up with all the capital.

The way index mutual funds work is to distribute returns to everyone according to how much capital they have contributed.

The socialist version would be a find that everyone is required to contribute all their capital too. And then each citizen receives an equal share of the returns.

Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by intuitionist on Wednesday January 16, 2019 @08:01PM (#18927358)
Matt Bruenig has a joke that the reason he named his company Vanguard is that it’s the vanguard of socialism.
Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by pbreit on Wednesday January 16, 2019 @10:26PM (#18928094)
I don’t get it.
Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by intuitionist on Thursday January 17, 2019 @02:15AM (#18928981)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vanguardism

(The company is actually named after Lord Nelson's flagship at the Nile, but who's counting?)

Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by pm90 on Wednesday January 16, 2019 @11:10PM (#18928311)
van·guard /ˈvanˌɡärd/ noun noun: vanguard; plural noun: vanguards

a group of people leading the way in new developments or ideas.

Re:John C. Bogle Has Died by omegaworks on Wednesday January 16, 2019 @07:09PM (#18927019)
Don't say this too loud. US policy has been to[1] undermine[2] socialism[3] abroad[4], what's to say it won't do the same with my retirement savings :D

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salvador_Allende#Presidency

2. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/lia.asp

3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_Petroleum_Company

4. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PDVSA