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Re:Will China’s Economy Hit a Great Wall? by rossdavidh on Tuesday January 15, 2019 @10:40PM (#18918064)
I respect anyone who is willing to point out when they were wrong before.

In regard to China, I think that they (like the Soviet Union before them) were very good at playing catch-up, because command economies are very good at getting everybody on board to do the thing which everyone knows needs to be done. "Do this, or we will put you in prison or worse."

However, once you have (mostly) caught up, it becomes less obvious what the next thing to do is. Literal moonshot? Fiberoptic internet to every house in the nation? Particle accelerator that can hit energies never before reached? Every student gets a spot in a university?

Some of these might be good ideas, some might be boondoggles. It's hard to know, when you're nearing the front of the pack. The Soviet Union was great at playing catch-up until, sometime in the mid 60's, they were too close to the forefront to be able to clearly see what needed to be done next.

China's Communist Party is great at getting everyone to do what they have decided to do. I think it is going to be harder for them to figure out what an economy, of their size and relatively advanced state, should be doing next. If they guess wrong, it will be ugly.

Re:Will China’s Economy Hit a Great Wall? by echevil on Wednesday January 16, 2019 @03:10AM (#18919094)
> However, once you have (mostly) caught up, it becomes less obvious what the next thing to do is.

Chinese economy is not about catching up with the west anymore. If you ever lived in China in recent years, you'd see that the Chinese economy is advancing in lots of aspects, and many of those in ways vastly different from western societies. The government plays an important part in it, but private companies are just as important. For example, the tech industry in China (which comprised of mostly private companies) evolved into its own ecosystem, and is iterating faster than that of silicon valley.

Re:Will China’s Economy Hit a Great Wall? by chillacy on Wednesday January 16, 2019 @11:19AM (#18922111)
Right, maybe that’s the parents point: that innovation comes from the private sector now, and the command and control state owned enterprises are inefficient and slowly dying..
Re:Will China’s Economy Hit a Great Wall? by sanxiyn on Wednesday January 16, 2019 @07:42AM (#18920308)
> However, once you have (mostly) caught up, it becomes less obvious what the next thing to do is. Literal moonshot? Fiberoptic internet to every house in the nation? Particle accelerator that can hit energies never before reached? Every student gets a spot in a university? Some of these might be good ideas...

All of these are good ideas, and China or South Korea is doing them. 1) Literal moonshot. Heard of Chang'e 4 which landed on 2019-01-03 yet? 2) Fiber optic. Ever wondered why South Korea is land of MMORPG? 3) Particle accelerator. Heard of CEPC yet? 4) Every student at university. Check South Korea.

China (and South Korea) is doing them and tens more. Yes, some of it will fail, it's natural. But there are lots of "the next thing to do", it's not "less obvious" than what came before.

Re:Will China’s Economy Hit a Great Wall? by rossdavidh on Wednesday January 16, 2019 @10:39AM (#18921712)
Yeah, they weren't chosen randomly. Also, China and South Korea seem to be taking very different paths. While there are always similarities between any two country's governments, there are a lot of differences there. South Korea has competitive elections, where incumbents are not uncommonly voted out of office, and China does not. South Korea is fundamentally a market economy (with lots of government involvement), and China is much closer to a command economy (with lots of market elements). Neither one is at an extreme on the market-vs-command spectrum, but they are in very different parts of that spectrum.
Re:Will China’s Economy Hit a Great Wall? by chillacy on Wednesday January 16, 2019 @11:21AM (#18922130)
South Korea did a large chunk of its economic growth as a military dictatorship. Only recently has it become a democracy.
Re:Will China’s Economy Hit a Great Wall? by simonh on Wednesday January 16, 2019 @10:31AM (#18921634)
I suspect those examples were chosen from conscious knowledge.
Re:Will China’s Economy Hit a Great Wall? by PhilWright on Tuesday January 15, 2019 @10:50PM (#18918102)
I would agree that a developing economy can copy the best practices and latest technology from the leading economies to, relatively, quickly catch up.

You say that the USSR got close to the leading economies in the mid 60's. But that does not explain why they fell so far behind afterwards. How come they did not continue to be just behind for the succeeding decades?

Re:Will China’s Economy Hit a Great Wall? by simonh on Wednesday January 16, 2019 @10:43AM (#18921763)
The west had institutions and processes for developing new technologies and infrastructure and evolving or renewing and replacing them efficiently. What the USSR did was simply copy what the West had, but at the end of doing so instead of having their own institutions and processes for developing new technology and infrastructure, they had a broken cookie-cutter for an outdated version of an industrialized society the west was already moving beyond. They had no process for evolving it into the future, because they had no real process for getting there themselves in the first place.

It's not that they couldn't develop any new technology. They had, and still have centres of excellence and technology sectors they’re very good at, just not enough across the whole economy.

This is why Russia is still such a backwater. It has never developed it's own internal marketplace for ideas, innovation, entrepreneur-ism and technical evolution. The Resource Curse and attendant corruption and political rent seeking has hit them hard. I believe that China has largely avoided this mistake.

Re:Will China’s Economy Hit a Great Wall? by userulluipeste on Thursday January 17, 2019 @08:41AM (#18930659)
Besides other problems that USSR had, like the pervasive corruption and the lack of incentives for taking initiative in almost anything, it's worth considering that it achieved economic development by large scale investments. That meant huge farms, huge factories, huge everything please! The good was the immediate results of the said investments thanks to the good (enough) efficiency as the economies of scale kicked in. The bad was in the costs required to keep those damn behemoths competitive as the world evolved! Factor in the fact that the declared reason behind those huge investments was not economic efficiency but employment of people, and you get something that will have trouble in the long term keeping up with their counterparts in the capitalist world. That was short-term (political) capital seeking policy at its best! That however, mattered less because usually it was just about some bureaucrat's career bet for getting results fast, cashing out in time the political merits, and then exit by propelling himself to another position somewhere, a game played up to the highest levels (e.g. Leonid Brezhnev and Virgin Lands Campaign). The ending question is, does China differ in this regard?
Re:Will China’s Economy Hit a Great Wall? by rossdavidh on Wednesday January 16, 2019 @10:39AM (#18921722)
The point is, that once you have (nearly) caught up, it is less clear what needs to be done next, and command economies are not as good at that.
Re:Will China’s Economy Hit a Great Wall? by dasil003 on Tuesday January 15, 2019 @11:54PM (#18918327)
Because once you're close the sense of urgency wears off, people get comfortable and corruption sets in.
Re:Will China’s Economy Hit a Great Wall? by BariumBlue on Tuesday January 15, 2019 @10:58PM (#18918121)
Command economies are macro efficient, micro inefficient, as opposed to pure capitalism, which is generally micro efficient, macro inefficient
Re:Will China’s Economy Hit a Great Wall? by adventured on Tuesday January 15, 2019 @11:04PM (#18918143)
China's economy isn't effecient at the macro level and never has been.

It's wildly inefficient, with those inefficiencies previously covered over by the former rapid rate of growth.

You can see that inefficiency coming to light now, as they over-invest into stagnant state owned enterprises in their credit markets and deprive the private market of capital. That despite most of the employment, innovation, and growth formerly coming from the private sector. The reason they're doing that, is to fake growth, the only place they can immediately force-allocate stimulus spending is in the giant stagnant state owned enterprises. Several years ago all of their economic metrics went hard south, despite their claims about growth everything was indicating a near recessionary environment, so they fired up big stimulus programs and inflated assets such as real-estate. That stimulus was overwhelmingly focused on things they didn't actually need and it has resulted in mediocre growth. They're facing the exact same situation again now.

Their productivity rate has collapsed since they shifted to that perma stimulus model seven years ago or so. Once your productivity implodes, you can only grow by shoving capital or labor at a problem. They have a contracting labor market, so their options there are now mostly exhausted. Which is why China now has to constantly run capital stimulus programs with big shots of capital or credit lending to the state enterprises. Their economy is no longer growing rapidly organically. Each subsequent round of this produces reduced returns, because the last thing China actually needs is to produce a lot more steel or concrete or buildings (they have extreme vacancy problems in their real-estate market), and those are the easy targets for juicing the economy in a command style from the top. It also resulted in loading up their local economies with enormous amounts of debt, as the local regions & munis are part of the stimulus shoveling process of moving capital into the state enterprises and real-estate.

Re:Will China’s Economy Hit a Great Wall? by nopinsight on Wednesday January 16, 2019 @12:23AM (#18918455)
What do you think of the upcoming $300 billion tax cut which they recently announced and increasing their European-level R&D spending (see my other comment) further?
Re:Will China’s Economy Hit a Great Wall? by simonh on Wednesday January 16, 2019 @10:56AM (#18921889)
I think it's a great move in the right direction. Someone there has a decent idea what they're doing, I just hope they get a chance to see it through. China is likely to face some tough challenges in the next few years and maintaining discipline will not be easy.
Re:Will China’s Economy Hit a Great Wall? by barry-cotter on Tuesday January 15, 2019 @11:54PM (#18918325)
If you can point to any facet of Soviet, Pol Pot or Maoist economic history that makes them look efficient please do so. The best one can say about any of them as far as I can see is that they were far superior to war and reasonable at heavy industry.
Re:Will China’s Economy Hit a Great Wall? by chillacy on Wednesday January 16, 2019 @11:23AM (#18922157)
The US also entered a more command economy during wartime, when industries were nationalized or coerced into producing wartime supplies.