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Re:Sears has another chance to avoid closing down by 3pt14159 on Tuesday January 08, 2019 @08:17PM (#18861465)
Ahh, I came to this thread far too late, but hopefully this won't be missed. In 1980 The Yankee Group (a tech consultancy) reached out to my dad to help them understand how Sears could respond to the growing tech phenomenon. For reasons too long to get into, Gates and my pops (a Canadian) knew each other and were even both covered in The Intelligent Machines Journal out of Palo Alto in the same issue during the waning days of the '70s.

So my father and these Yankees told Gates that Microsoft should meet with these clueless Sears guys, since they'd probably move a number of computers over the next couple years and it would be helpful for them to think "Computers? Microsoft." So he begrudgingly did.

In the meeting someone brought up investment and Gates said they could have 20% for $8m. You never know how all these things go. Sometimes someone you never heard of tells you something true and your relative position stops you from seeing it.

Re:Sears has another chance to avoid closing down by confiscate on Tuesday January 08, 2019 @11:57PM (#18862381)
60 minutes interview with a young Jeff Bezos, 1999

https://youtu.be/VuI-ss5aQU8?t=629

"how do you view that phenomenon [laugh] that Amazon is worth more than Sears!? [condescending laugh]"

"a couple of geeks [laugh laugh], who sketched out some software, could destroy Sears Roebuck [laugh]"

same 60 minutes "expert", telling young Bezos, Amazon stock was wildly expensive

https://youtu.be/dTxuzW9RAO8?t=20

"Amazon is worth more than a major industrial company, like Texaco ... that didn't blow your mind?"

Re:Sears has another chance to avoid closing down by slededit on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @01:35AM (#18862779)
There's significantly more information in 2018 or even 2008 to indicate Amazon was worth that valuation. A companies potential has to be adjusted by risk if you want a good valuation, and in 1999 there just wan't enough evidence. This is validated by it dropping dramatically after the bubble popping.

In fact they were only saved because he had secured financing mere months before the collapse, had that not happened Amazon would be listed among the likes of Pets.com.

Re:Sears has another chance to avoid closing down by confiscate on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @03:14AM (#18863159)
True.

But, the 60-minutes reporter didn't justify his claims based on risk or on math. He was skeptical because Sears is huge, and to him it was laughable [and yes, he did literally laugh many times in that interview] that Amazon can someday be worth more than Sears. To him it was "messed up", and a sign of things wrong with the world

Re:Sears has another chance to avoid closing down by netcan on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @04:49AM (#18863577)
Only is a big caveat, for the "dotcom" that survived the bust and became the biggest company in the world.
Re:Sears has another chance to avoid closing down by slededit on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @07:50PM (#18870565)
Even if they were established they’d have a tough time getting financing in the .com crash. A bit of luck is always necessary.
Re:Sears has another chance to avoid closing down by samatman on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @12:34AM (#18862540)
In 1999, AMZN peaked ar $80.

Two years later it was trading at $10, and didn’t recover until 2007.

The interviewer was right; Amazon was over valued.

Re:Sears has another chance to avoid closing down by lostlogin on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @12:40AM (#18862571)
Or was it radically undervalued in 2001?
Re:Sears has another chance to avoid closing down by samstave on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @01:00AM (#18862657)
I'd say it wasn't, because AWS didn't exist to be undervalued as a business factor.
Re:Sears has another chance to avoid closing down by amanaplanacanal on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @02:55PM (#18868202)
What kind of profits were they showing in 2001? I'm not going to look it up, but I'm sure they were negative. There were a lot of people back then who couldn't figure out how Amazon would ever make money when they sold everything at a loss.
Re:Sears has another chance to avoid closing down by drb91 on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @12:43AM (#18862583)
You can’t proclaim it a right decision or wrong decision without comparing exits as well. It’s the delta that’s meaningful, not the value at that single point in time.
Re:Sears has another chance to avoid closing down by confiscate on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @12:42AM (#18862577)
Amazon worth more than Sears? Can you imagine?
Re:Sears has another chance to avoid closing down by close04 on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @04:05AM (#18863384)
All things are clear with the power of hindsight. But if it were so simple you'd already know which company to throw your money at today and be a billionaire in a decade. Do you?
Re:Sears has another chance to avoid closing down by confiscate on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @01:16PM (#18867129)
True, but why laugh at Amazon? What can you possibly gain by picking on the "little guy"?

The reporter is supposed to be an expert in this field. That's why 60 minutes hired him, instead of someone else, for the job. I am sure there was no shortage of applicants who wanted this job.

Why couldn't he be more open-minded and supportive of a startup like Amazon? Instead of constantly laughing at Amazon and Jeff Bezos (like his choice of cars)

So why be a snob? As you said, no one knows what will happen. Why laugh at the little guy? You don't know what's going to happen

Re:Sears has another chance to avoid closing down by close04 on Friday January 11, 2019 @11:52AM (#18884778)
Economics Nobel price winner Paul Krugman once said that the internet’s effect on the world economy would be no greater than the fax machine's. I don't expect a journalist to perform better.

Being open minded and supportive is probably a stretch when something sounds so outrageous that you simply can't believe it's anchored to reality in any way. I assume this is how it felt back then. Probably there were situations where you yourself became derisive of certain things you simply couldn't conceive could be different only to be proven wrong some time later.

Re:Sears has another chance to avoid closing down by samstave on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @12:58AM (#18862641)
My grandmother received an invite.

We are a seattle-native family. Through people we knew at the time, they asked her to invest in their company and she could have 10% of the company if she gave them money.

She discussed it with my grandfather and they both agreed: "Nobody is going to drink that much coffee." and rejected Starbuck's offer.

Re:Sears has another chance to avoid closing down by nielsole on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @07:17AM (#18864163)
There was a good podcast about the founding period on NPRs how i built this. Worth checking out
Re:Sears has another chance to avoid closing down by dba7dba on Tuesday January 08, 2019 @09:03PM (#18861686)
Haha, that's interesting to hear.

So if Sears invested in Microsoft in 1980, Sears of today could've been like Yahoo, whose investment in Alibaba kept Yahoo afloat a few more years but ultimately continued down the downward spiral?

I gather that the few people at Sears who were aware of the investment invite from Bill Gates may not even be alive, considering it was 39 years ago.

Re:Sears has another chance to avoid closing down by ngcc_hk on Tuesday January 08, 2019 @11:33PM (#18862291)
May be it so negatively influence Microsoft it killed it. It is not a money deposit. You can run down your firm which core to your business you can run down other non-core business. Not many run mixed business work (GM in one stage but not even now).
Re:Sears has another chance to avoid closing down by Bonooru on Tuesday January 08, 2019 @10:46PM (#18862087)
Yahoo was different though. People would buy Yahoo stock as a proxy for Alibaba since it wasn't publicly traded.
Re:Sears has another chance to avoid closing down by konschubert on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @04:05AM (#18863385)
Wait, I’m confused. This agency that’s consulting for sears sets up a meeting for bill gates to sell his computers to sears?

How is that in the interest of sears?

Re:Sears has another chance to avoid closing down by 3pt14159 on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @10:23AM (#18865328)
Because in the early 80s nobody understood computers or how individuals at home were going to use them and Sears knew they didn't know. For example, some people thought that computers should be waterproof so you could install them next to your sink in the kitchen so you could use them to help you with recipes. Sound crazy? What's an iPhone? A waterproof computer that helps hundreds of millions with recipes.

There were so many good ideas in the early 80s but Gates was such a genius that he understood how to separate which ones were coming first. He thought about things from first principles in a way that Musk does today. The Yankees knew databases and stuff, but they didn't know the future, but they knew that my dad thought in the same way. That he thought about the future. My dad was more of a telephony guy than a computer guy and he saw how much of a genius Gates was, so he roped him in to help out his Yankee friends.

Re:Sears has another chance to avoid closing down by Izkata on Wednesday January 09, 2019 @03:51PM (#18868755)
> so you could install them next to your sink in the kitchen so you could use them to help you with recipes.

Yikes, you just reminded me of a TV ad I saw in the late 90s, of a housewife using a device like that. I remember a CRT-style monitor, but it's faded enough that I can't remember any other details.

Re:Sears has another chance to avoid closing down by kd5bjo on Thursday January 10, 2019 @04:13AM (#18872553)
In 1969, there was the Honeywell Kitchen Computer: https://www.computerhistory.org/revolution/minicomputers/11/...