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Re:Before the Electric Car Takes Over, Someone Needs to Rein... by WorldMaker on Monday January 07, 2019 @11:29AM (#18846568)
«Why does the battery needs to be part of the car at all? It clearly depreciates and is technologically disrupted on a different time frame than the car itself. A Tesla Roadster is a fine car and will continue to be for decades, if you can only refresh it's battery pack every 10 years or so.»

Cars overall depreciate on the scale of 10/15 years or so. Right now the depreciation rates are the same. It's an interesting artifact of ICE vehicles that people don't expect any car's drive train to last more than ~15 years. It shouldn't be a surprise that car manufacturers were skeptical of battery tech right up until they hit about that same magic lifetime number. It also shouldn't be a surprise that car manufacturers won't have a lot of incentive to push it past that magic lifetime number, because that would affect car replacement rates and that would affect the bottom line.

Mostly battery replacements look to keep the used car / secondary markets busy, and if we expect to see interesting innovations in battery replacements that's probably where we'll see them as more electric cars get resold to secondary and tertiary owners. (Just as we see the used car markets pushing innovations in after-market parts in general.)

You are right in that maybe leaves room for a disruption that someone might be interested in a "car for life" model where electric cars might be built far more sustainably with an ideal towards larger reuse of the vehicle over the owner's lifetime and a larger depreciation scale on the order of multiple decades.

That would be a huge game changer, and would potentially be great for the planet (less steel production alone, conceivably). It would also take a lot of work to make it happen, given the existing industry reliance on the current business model for most of a century now. It would also be one extremely huge disruption in so many downstream industries, secondary markets, etc, to the point where it may be more of a revolution (in the industrial sense, but also perhaps the war sense) than a "simple" disruption.

Re:Before the Electric Car Takes Over, Someone Needs to Rein... by opencl on Monday January 07, 2019 @11:40AM (#18846700)
I see lots of 15+ year old cars around, my car is over 20 years old and still works fine. About 25% of vehicles used in the US today are at least 15 years old. The drivetrains already very often outlast the body/frame falling apart from rust, at least in places that salt the roads during winter.

https://nhts.ornl.gov/vehicles

Re:Before the Electric Car Takes Over, Someone Needs to Rein... by hrktb on Monday January 07, 2019 @01:20PM (#18848169)
Isn’t it before electronics heavily started to get into the cars ?

Of course, we can view the car as a single purpose ‘move from A to B’ device, but there’s other viewpoints where the car has a performance (speed, efficiency, handling assist, smoother engine management) profile, quality of life and security features (auto cruising, speed limit detection, tire pressure detection, auto braking etc)

All of these should have evolved enough in 10 years that you get significant benefits from an upgrade.

Re:Before the Electric Car Takes Over, Someone Needs to Rein... by opencl on Monday January 07, 2019 @02:00PM (#18848687)
Cars have made pretty heavy use of electronics for around 30 years at this point. My mid-90s car has electronic fuel injection, computer controlled transmission, a dozen sensors in the engine bay, anti-lock brakes, keyless entry, power windows, motorized seats, heated seats, digital cabin thermostat, cruise control, etc. There's even a stereo.

Obviously new cars are in general an upgrade. Most people driving old cars do not do so because they want to, they do it because new cars are too expensive.

Re:Before the Electric Car Takes Over, Someone Needs to Rein... by justtopost on Monday January 07, 2019 @02:11PM (#18848825)
As someone experinced here, most pre OBD2 electronics are very often much easier to hack for performance applications. Obd2 started in 1996 in the usa. The extra sensors and data are not the issue, quite welcome actually. The issue is the opaqueness of the newer hardware.
Re:Before the Electric Car Takes Over, Someone Needs to Rein... by mveety on Monday January 07, 2019 @10:29PM (#18852874)
Not to mention that they're easier to diagnose and fix. Having diagnostic data available to you was fantastic for me as a young car nerd with no experience.
Re:Before the Electric Car Takes Over, Someone Needs to Rein... by borkt on Monday January 07, 2019 @11:56AM (#18846917)
I drive a 30 year old vehicle at times, replaced the engine with a japanese engine at around 60k on it, at a cost of around $2,000 with new timing belt and associated accessories/pumps/etc. The engine is rock solid still pushing out about 450 HP but the suspension, frame, and body are pretty beat at ~200k miles on the car. I would say you really aren't going to have an enjoyable car at much more than 130-150k miles, whether or not the drivetrain is replaced. I did a good amount of work in college on fatigue cycles in metals, and with our roads and infrastructure deteriorating this is only going to decrease the usable life of an average frame/suspension.
Re:Before the Electric Car Takes Over, Someone Needs to Rein... by dhd415 on Monday January 07, 2019 @12:14PM (#18847196)
I'd dispute the idea that a car with 130k-150k miles can't be enjoyable. I've had multiple BMWs with more than that many miles that were plenty enjoyable. None of them had any drivetrain replacements though all of them had suspension replacements as should be expected as those are all wear components. I've even had other BMW owners remark that my 200k+-mile car drives better than their own with ~60k miles due to the recency of the suspension component replacements on mine.

There's certainly degradation that occurs to a car with lots of mileage, but it's generally with the interior and the electrical systems. There may be some exterior corrosion, too, if you live in the appropriate climate though corrosion resistance has improved a lot on cars lately. And, of course, all bets are off if you don't properly maintain the car.

Re:Before the Electric Car Takes Over, Someone Needs to Rein... by jki275 on Monday January 07, 2019 @01:01PM (#18847909)
I drive a toyota at 180k and it's fine. It's not pretty or perfect, but it gets me to and from work with no issue.

I should get around to replacing some suspension components to make it more comfortable to drive, probably will later this year when I get some time. They're not terribly expensive.

Re:Before the Electric Car Takes Over, Someone Needs to Rein... by fpoling on Monday January 07, 2019 @02:28PM (#18849016)
In Belarus there are quite a few of BMW and Audi approaching 30 years or more. According to a person that works in a shop specializing in their repair the biggest issue is rust. The engine and other parts are mostly original with minimal repairs. In Belarus a good mechanic earns 700-1000 usd/month and his time is cheaper then getting replacement parts.
Re:Before the Electric Car Takes Over, Someone Needs to Rein... by WorldMaker on Monday January 07, 2019 @12:10PM (#18847133)
Yeah, that's a fascinating technical question if someone were to try for a "car for life" model. My college car was still driving fine when I sold it (at about 13 years in its life and something less that 70k miles), but the interior plastics were deteriorating faster than I would have expected to the point where pliers were needed to be used to adjust the a/c as the knobs broke off and probably the window cranks were about to follow.

The other side of it too is accidents are likely to always be an issue with cars (even in a world of self-driving cars, I suspect), and there are plenty of other safety reasons cars shouldn't be expected to be driven for too many years without replacement.

Re:Before the Electric Car Takes Over, Someone Needs to Rein... by rconti on Monday January 07, 2019 @12:44PM (#18847654)
Yup. I've got a 20 year old BMW with 150k miles on it, and it's a fantastic car. But things wear out.

Electric or ICE, as you hit 150-200k, you'll have long since worn through all kinds of rubber bushings on virtually every part, you'll be approaching the point where you've had to replace starter or alternator, you'll have (hopefully) replaced your suspension a couple of times, and so on. As the value continues to decline, the 'value' of spending parts+labor money on any of these replacements starts to decline.

Re:Before the Electric Car Takes Over, Someone Needs to Rein... by lgleason on Monday January 07, 2019 @03:05PM (#18849412)
The transmission, especially on an automatic, is the thing that often does them in. I just recently had one go on a 18 year old Chevy Imapla and decided to sell it rather than fixing it. The body and interior are in very good condition. The problem is that other stuff is starting to go. For example the AC has never been serviced and will be an issue in the near future, I live in Atlanta where that is needed. I've gone through two EGR valves, throttle position sensor etc.. The car, working perfectly can sell for up to $4500 with new tires, but it has old tires (-$400), plus the transmission rebuild/replace is going to be between $2100-$2500. The engine itself is in great shape with no problems and if I wanted to dump more money into it I could drive the car to 300 plus thousand miles, but it is starting to need to have things fixed more and more....

It helped that I was able to get a brand new loaded Volt for $9,000 off plus an additional $7500 tax rebate. which in the end means that I have the best of both worlds for $25,000 with a full warranty etc..

Re:Before the Electric Car Takes Over, Someone Needs to Rein... by telchar on Monday January 07, 2019 @01:09PM (#18848005)
Can I ask what parts you're referring to specifically when you say "replace the suspension"? My car is past 100k at this point and I'm looking forward to what might need to be done to keep it reasonably nice.
Re:Before the Electric Car Takes Over, Someone Needs to Rein... by djaychela on Monday January 07, 2019 @01:49PM (#18848553)
Usually, you'd be talking dampers (often called shock absorbers in the UK), and often the springs will have broken.

Having said that, I remember that 20 years ago, those kinds of parts would need to be replaced after maybe 60-80k miles. However, everything seems to be better built now - my van has 214k on it, and no sign of needing replacements - same goes for all the cars I've bought and sold (20 or so) in the last 3 years.

Re:Before the Electric Car Takes Over, Someone Needs to Rein... by rconti on Monday January 07, 2019 @02:24PM (#18848976)
It's pretty commonly for shocks/struts/dampers to be worn out by 50-80k miles. As early as 30k. Sure, the car will still seem to generally drive fine, but the point is that all of these things get worse over time.

Further on down the mileage line, virtually everything is wearing out. Rubber bushings in control arms. Rubber bushings in all your rear suspension points. There's rubber EVERYWHERE on cars, and it all wears out. Motor mounts, transmission mounts, shock mounts. Again, it'll still go down the road, but it won't drive like new. You might have a lot of slop in steering, slop in cornering. The car might pull one way or another under acceleration. It'll be louder, harsher, clunkier.

Re:Before the Electric Car Takes Over, Someone Needs to Rein... by jccooper on Monday January 07, 2019 @02:07PM (#18848772)
You at least need to do struts and shocks, probably springs if they're separate. You'll want to check the strut towers are still decent, or if they need reinforcement.

Going a little deeper, probably your tie rods and sway bar links are shot, as are the control arm bushings (which may or may not be integral with the entire control arm).

Re:Before the Electric Car Takes Over, Someone Needs to Rein... by btbuilder on Monday January 07, 2019 @02:03PM (#18848720)
Primarily the shocks / dampeners and their rubber bushings.
Re:Before the Electric Car Takes Over, Someone Needs to Rein... by ams6110 on Monday January 07, 2019 @03:29PM (#18849658)
Most of the parts that degrade in a suspension are replacable. Bushings, stabilizer links, steering links, shocks, etc. are all easily replaced in most cars (n.b. EVs such as Tesla are the same as any other car in regards to these parts -- they will wear over time). The core frame structure is not going to suffer any significant fatigue from normal driving. Rust is another matter of course.
Re:Before the Electric Car Takes Over, Someone Needs to Rein... by yholio on Monday January 07, 2019 @11:48AM (#18846811)
I think we might already be in that future with electrics. Just look at most tram and subway systems in major cities, you will usually find a mix of rolling stock with some produced as far back as 60s or 70s and still in daily service. The equivalent ICE bus has long since been scrapped.

Not necessarily by design, it's simply inherent to electric drive, you have much less "metal grinding against lubricated metal with a controlled wear rate" situations that seems to doom ICEs and the associated transmissions on the long run.