Edit: to be clear, I wish them luck too, but I think they’re being dishonest with their timelines. The YC / startup culture is the polar opposite of the FAA culture, which is basically “move slow and make sure nothing breaks, and if it does, carefully examine the situation and change the rules so it doesn’t break again”
Here’s a good overview of the certification process: https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/aviation-internation...
Zero chance that some random startup is going to have these flying with passengers in 2025. They follow a very long line of startups that have burned through billions of dollars and almost all failed. I’d be surprised if there was more than one or two new airplane companies in the past three decades that have survived without bankruptcy, state subsidies, etc. And none of them were trying to do something nearly so technically challenging.
All that said, I hope to eat a giant humble pie on my 2025 supersonic flight to London!
1. Boom (or some other startup) will deliver by 2025.
2. Boom (or some other startup) will deliver, but later.
3. Boeing (or Airbus) will deliver later.
4. No renewed supersonic commercial flights in our lifetime.
I understand you say 1 is impossible. But is 2 out of the question? is 3 more likely that 4? is 3 more likely than 2?
I don't know enough about Boom and supersonic flight, but I personally don't subscribe to the idea that tomorrow is entirely in the hands of today's established institutions.
Trouble for Boom is that promising (1) might make raising the capital for (2) more difficult. And also the big risk they deliver (2) which is known to be possible and don't sell enough aircraft to recover their costs.
It will still be extraordinary expensive and difficult, so I wish them luck.