Existing companies don't try anything radically new because of risk aversion, corporate inertia, whatever you want to call it. Why didn't NYC YellowCab invent Uber? They've been doing their thing for years and it's been working just fine. Sometimes you need an outsider to take a radical risk, that in all odds will likely fail, but every so often doesn't.

I disagree with the rest of your comment, but I see where you’re coming from. But almost every failed aerospace company has a bunch of people with industry experience. Doesn’t stop nearly all of them from crashing and burning. And even the unicorn that succeeds is very late and way over budget.

Guess we’ll see.

"to do the impossible" -- since you have not invested any money in this company, why does it bother you so much that they intend to achieve goals you don't believe in? how many people predicted failure for the Wright brothers?

I root for Boom and will applaud all their achievements, because I appreciate ambition and feel grateful to all ambitious entrepreneurs.

It will still be extraordinary expensive and difficult, so I wish them luck.

Edit: to be clear, I wish them luck too, but I think they’re being dishonest with their timelines. The YC / startup culture is the polar opposite of the FAA culture, which is basically “move slow and make sure nothing breaks, and if it does, carefully examine the situation and change the rules so it doesn’t break again”

Here’s a good overview of the certification process: https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/aviation-internation...

Zero chance that some random startup is going to have these flying with passengers in 2025. They follow a very long line of startups that have burned through billions of dollars and almost all failed. I’d be surprised if there was more than one or two new airplane companies in the past three decades that have survived without bankruptcy, state subsidies, etc. And none of them were trying to do something nearly so technically challenging.

All that said, I hope to eat a giant humble pie on my 2025 supersonic flight to London!

1. Boom (or some other startup) will deliver by 2025.

2. Boom (or some other startup) will deliver, but later.

3. Boeing (or Airbus) will deliver later.

4. No renewed supersonic commercial flights in our lifetime.

I understand you say 1 is impossible. But is 2 out of the question? is 3 more likely that 4? is 3 more likely than 2?

I don't know enough about Boom and supersonic flight, but I personally don't subscribe to the idea that tomorrow is entirely in the hands of today's established institutions.

Trouble for Boom is that promising (1) might make raising the capital for (2) more difficult. And also the big risk they deliver (2) which is known to be possible and don't sell enough aircraft to recover their costs.

However, it's a huge economic hill to climb. Long haul flying is already pretty comfortable if you spend the money. Even on United which has been upgrading domestic routes. Of course, faster is better. But lie flat seating, decent food, and even mini-rooms go a long way towards making lengthy flights comfortable.

So you basically have to get close to those price points, which is the high end of the volume market. A few hours aren't worth that much even to most relatively wealthy folks.