Why should we believe Tesla that HW3 is actually capable of FSD this time?
https://www.techrepublic.com/article/tesla-to-release-fully-...
If they don't have FSD by mid-2019, that's two years off that target. Deadlines slip, companies overpromise, this is a hard problem, all that jazz, but by early 2020, people who leased Teslas that they were told would have FSD are going to be deciding what their next move is. If part of the calculation is "FSD still ain't here yet, but Tesla is promising a free upgrade to HW4 which they say will really lay the foundation for FSD this time Elon pinky-swears," I would submit that it's gonna matter.
When you select full self-driving capability in the Tesla configurator, it states explicitly and prominently that this isn't enabled (or ready!) yet, and is subject to legal approval.
Anyone that buys a Tesla, thinks it is fully autonomous, and dies as a result is failing natural selection. Third parties (pedestrians and other drivers) on the other hand are victims, but have there been any examples of this with Tesla cars? My not-full-self-driving AP2 Model X can detect pedestrians, and will also emergency stop if it detects things. This is aside from the fact I, as the driver, should be emergency stopping if I see a forthcoming collision with a pedestrian!
Think of Autopilot like a horse. You still need a driver, but at least you've got another set of eyes on the road. Sometimes it will notice things you don't, sometimes it will get spooked by things it shouldn't do, but two sets of eyes/two brains are better than one.
The things that could happen are that either Tesla ships full self-driving (FSD) and better delivers when it does (i.e. it has to work reliably).
Or it puts off the customers again, promising a new hardware 4, 5, 6, ... capable of FSD - in which case people better read the instructions (and pay attention at all time lest they end up in a divider or under a trailer).
There's two tiers-- Enhanced Autopilot (EAP), and FSD. To own FSD, you need to have already purchased EAP. However, you do not need to purchase FSD to have EAP.
Enhanced Autopilot is (in simple terms) lane keeping + adaptive cruise control. It's designed only to work on highways, and does not need the HW3 board nor will owners that only purchased this get the new hardware.
FSD owners will get the HW3 board so that Tesla can fulfill the promise of providing FSD that the owner originally purchased with their car (or after-the-fact). FSD will (in theory) handle self-driving in most cases, such as regular street driving with stop lights, stop signs, roundabouts, etc.