If all insurance lowered to Medicare reimbursements, you will reduce supply.
That said, every branch of healthcare works different and could be upside down from this where they make a ton on Medicare but not commercial
Its more like how airlines work: they make money on first class, and coach is something that fills the plane to cover some costs. If planes were made mandatory to only have coach, they would go bankrupt.
Which suggests to me that prices do not reflect actual cost, but rather inflated profit margins.
There are lots of healthcare companies that are public. Healthcare insurance companies are amongst the lowest earnings of any insurance, contrary to the argumentational of Bernie Sanders. Also, one of the biggest health insurance companies, blue cross, is a non-profit.
Furthermore, 60% of hospitals are non-profit. And hospitals are 30% of the national healthcare spending.
If we are theorizing at random on what changes could impact the cost-effectiveness of healthcare, it is the increase of profits, not the decrease, that would be a more significant change.
US has.. - a very low doc/population count, due to the artificial constraints of medical licensing and immigration law.
- a draconian FDA process for drugs and an unreasonable patent application to drugs.
- An incredibly distortive public service implementation (Medicare) that provokes cost-shifting (by paying below cost), that creates heavy admin burden (fee-for-service), and that overpays specialties and punishes primary care (fix reimbursement fees in multiples for specialties, giving a very low primary care doc count)
- An incredibly distortive tax credit for the wealthier to spend on healthcare (the richer you are, the more tax effective it is to get better insurance through your employer)
- A free-market abolishing regulation requirement: tying healthcare provider to employer.
Even if I turn up at a private hospital here in Norway, I pay nowhere near what you would pay in the US. Which tells me that either hospitals are run extremely inefficiently in the US (orders of magnitude worse than here) or there are layers of pretty substantial profit margins.
I may be a bit peculiar, but I think a healthcare sector that is set up to mainly benefit execs and shareholders is a bit immoral.