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A comment on As the U.S. fantasizes, the rest of the world builds new transport system (2017). Parent comment

Re:As the U.S. fantasizes, the rest of the world builds new ... by rdl on Saturday December 22, 2018 @07:27PM (#18743464)
What matters is miles driven, not number of vehicles. For someone with a 1-2h each way commute (sigh), replacing a 2010 truck with a 5-year-old 2025 EV in 2030 will make sense on a 2 year cash return basis. For someone who drives 1-2k miles/year, it probably isn't worth upgrading.
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Re:As the U.S. fantasizes, the rest of the world builds new ... by realityczeque on Saturday December 22, 2018 @07:31PM (#18743496)
Yeah but EVs make up a far smaller proportion of miles driven than they do the fleet by units. For obvious reasons: many EVs are short-range vehicles and the people who buy them are self-selecting as people who are both environmentally conscious and able to live with the range problems. People with long commutes who can't afford a Tesla are obligated to burn gas.
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Re:As the U.S. fantasizes, the rest of the world builds new ... by rdl on Saturday December 22, 2018 @07:36PM (#18743523)
It is reasonable to assume that a 5 year old EV will be as cheap in 2030 (2025 model) as a 5 year old EV is today (2014 model), while becoming more capable at roughly the rate we've seen so far. A 5 year old Leaf is $6-10k now, and would be a ~250 mile range car by 2025.
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