Re:Lottery-Like Prizes Coax Savings. What’s the Risk in Expa...
by zozbot123 on Friday December 21, 2018 @05:54PM
(#18737433)
You could make this pay out better than actuarially-fair prizes, by having the savings fund invest some of the lottery jackpot in call options on a diversified portfolio. That way, the fund would be able to pay out more prizes when the markets are doing well, while still keeping a "baseline" level of draws at all other times. The reason why this would provide better-than-fair payouts is that these options are effectively on the capital markets line, i.e. investing in them is essentially removing risk that other market participants would otherwise have to face!
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Re:Lottery-Like Prizes Coax Savings. What’s the Risk in Expa...
by breck on Friday December 21, 2018 @08:09PM
(#18738190)
A little over ten years ago I cofounded a startup in Boston that was attempting to do something along these lines. We couldn’t believe how much money people were spending on such a bad investment. We were going to sell our own scratch tickets that had a positive EV. You’d scratch a ticket and reveal a code which could be redeemed for a fractional share(s) of stock in one of a basket of companies. The hope is we’d come close to the entertainment value while at the same time helping people save and earn a massive jump in ROI over regular scratch tickets (which paid 50 to 85% or so). The numbers would work at scale if people liked it. We weren’t the right people to do it, but I hope other people someday will offer something similar. Stockcards is something a little close to it, which is cool to see.
Re:Lottery-Like Prizes Coax Savings. What’s the Risk in Expa...
by SilasX on Friday December 21, 2018 @09:16PM
(#18738483)
Amazing! I had a similar idea, which was to simulate lottery tickets by selling shares of far-out-of-the-money options. They would rarely pay out, but when they do, it would be a lot.
Re:Lottery-Like Prizes Coax Savings. What’s the Risk in Expa...
by bovine3dom on Friday December 21, 2018 @06:22PM
(#18737623)
So kind of like https://www.nsandi.com/premium-bonds ?
Those are government bonds, but it's not far off your idea.
Edit: for clarity, the effective rate paid does vary over time according to interest rates, which usually have some relation to how well the markets are doing.
Re:Lottery-Like Prizes Coax Savings. What’s the Risk in Expa...
by zozbot123 on Friday December 21, 2018 @08:17PM
(#18738228)
> interest rates, which usually have some relation to how well the markets are doing.
Uh, maybe? There is a positive correlation of sorts, but it's nothing to write home about. It doesn't seem like this product was designed with any attention to the potential of better-than-fair payouts.
Re:Lottery-Like Prizes Coax Savings. What’s the Risk in Expa...
by walshemj on Friday December 21, 2018 @07:37PM
(#18738042)
Its 1.4% at the moment - which is good for the UK