News for hackers. Stuff that matters.

A comment on Why we should care about the Nate Silver vs. Nassim Taleb Twitter war. Parent comment

Re:Why we should care about the Nate Silver vs. Nassim Taleb... by logifail on Tuesday December 18, 2018 @04:12AM (#18705386)
>> Two outcomes being "extremely possible"

What on earth is a professional like Silver doing using the word "extremely" in that context?

If I'd have written that kind of statement in school, the teacher would have crossed it out in red pen and told me to rephrase.

If I toss a coin, are the outcomes "heads" and "tails" both supposed to be "extremely possible", with "landing on its edge" being merely "unlikely"?

(In case you can't already tell) I'm with Taleb on this one.

[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:Why we should care about the Nate Silver vs. Nassim Taleb... by mannykannot on Tuesday December 18, 2018 @08:56AM (#18706387)
> What on earth is a professional like Silver doing using the word "extremely" in that context?

Extemporizing while being interviewed on TV, presumably to stress the uncertainty in the prediction, is what he is doing, not writing an HN post, tweet or paper.

I suppose that whenever you are interviewed on national TV, you only say exactly what you mean, nothing more and nothing less?

[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:Why we should care about the Nate Silver vs. Nassim Taleb... by MattHeard on Tuesday December 18, 2018 @06:50AM (#18705876)
Both events are extreme yet possible.
[ Parent | on HN ]
Re:Why we should care about the Nate Silver vs. Nassim Taleb... by lozenge on Tuesday December 18, 2018 @10:49AM (#18707362)
There's nothing wrong with extremely likely if defined. Even without a strict definition people have some understanding of what it means. https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/what-likely-and-e...
[ Parent | on HN ]