The result of this unfalsifiability is the rapid "boom-bust" bubble cycles we see in crypto prices:

- 'informed' speculators buy early on the thesis that 'the old problems have been fixed from the last bubble.'

- typical bubble dynamics play out like 'greater fool' and 'your plumber is buying' rise up to the peak

- "problems" are brought to the forefront in the speculators' minds in response to events (in this last cycle, it was 'the network can't scale' in response to DoS attacks and 'the SEC is bringing the hammer' in response to their memo(s) for example)

- alternative, more foundational valuation measures fail to emerge through the cycle other than the primary hope and speculation in the promise of cryptocurrency, and so the bubble pops once a few whales start harvesting gains

- people lick their wounds, the press stops talking about crypto for a while, and people stop checking the tickers. developers are further enticed to keep working in the space because they can optimistically whiteboard out theoretical solutions to a good chunk of the "problems" (the ones that are due to technology or design limitations.) this is happening right now within the ethereum community, all hope is being pinned on the next set of features.

- in 1-2 years when plausible 'solutions' to the primary problems identified in the last cycle emerge the cycle repeats. note this doesn't mean they actually need to solve the problems, just be plausible enough to induce FOMO in early speculators that 'crypto's time has come.' if you recall this cycle there were memes that took hold around ethereum smart contracts being the missing piece, and that ICOs were going to incentivize innovation properly.

the only way in my mind that this cycle breaks is either a) a more grounded valuation metric comes forward based upon demonstrated value for crypto which rapidly causes some kind of pseudo-market efficiency (but still lots of vol) or b) interest in the ecosystem wanes so much (due to other emerging tech stealing talent or enough people being burned) that the brain drain causes the tech to stagnate and the sentiment that "crypto is dead" takes hold alongside this inertia or c) some fundamental flaw eradicates so much wealth so quickly that it affects most people in the economy. These seem hard to imagine right now, so my guess is we have at least a few more cycles.

Two signals that the ecosystem is perma-dead (if you ask me) is if we see:

- No active development going on due to "emotional capitulation" by most all tech talent (def not the case now)

- We see a crash which directly affected a large % of 401ks (not possible bc bitcoin et al are not fully securitized yet)

Market price action in and of itself doesn't say very much (to me) about if we will see another cycle.