Daniel Kahneman on when to trust intuitive judgment

Re:Daniel Kahneman on when to trust intuitive judgment by meditativeape on Friday November 30, 2018 @01:45PM (#18571438)

My intuition tells me that these three conditions are correct. Should I trust it?

While these conditions intuitively make sense, the example that he used to support his conclusions feels very weak. If the only information I know about this person is she read fluently at a young age, I don't think I can make a good guess of her GPA in college at all. There's no "right intuition" in this case, because so many other variables are in play.

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Re:Daniel Kahneman on when to trust intuitive judgment by projectramo on Friday November 30, 2018 @02:30PM (#18571881)

I think what you are missing is "base rate neglect."

Let's say the overall average GPA is 3 (or 3.1 for women):

https://blog.prepscholar.com/whats-the-average-high-school-g...

Then you would expect that to swamp the information that this person was an early reader. You might let the early reader have a slight effect.

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Re:Daniel Kahneman on when to trust intuitive judgment by gronne on Saturday December 01, 2018 @03:16AM (#18575866)

I think that was his point.

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