I think a combined cycle gas plant producing electricity at ~55% efficiency paired with a heat pump on site with a COP above 2 is actually better. Modern heat pumps actually have a COP in the 4-6 range (at least, ductless mini splits do). It’s a little surprising but it’s also cheaper to run a heat pump with a COP greater than 3 (gas is ~1/3 the price on a kWh basis). They are definitely a bit more expensive upfront, however.

Don't forget about 20% transmission losses.

I guess it'll depend on the climate, the COP of even the best heat pumps drops to 2 or worse in colder weather. I think I can agree that if it's a very mild climate and you frequently get a COP of 4 or better, then that could already beat a furnace in per-BTU gas consumption.

That's the sort of change I had in mind. To start a move off fossil and onto electric utilising community heat pump schemes for new estates and apartments etc. Far better as a community thing than individuals so the costs are reduced to each. That or electric for those houses with solar.