Table 1 has estimates of how many years of remaining global emissions we have before we exceed the cumulative emission budgets for various goals of limiting warming to at most +2, +3 or +4 degrees, and different probabilities of success. Note that the Friedlingstein et al paper from 2014 didn't even bother to talk about the possibility of limiting warming to +1.5 degrees C.
These estimates of emissions rates for remaining years before our cumulative emissions budget is exceeded are highly optimistic in the sense that they assume annual CO_2-equivalent emissions stop growing, i.e. the rate we are emitting greenhouse gas is held constant to whatever they were in 2014. In comparison, annual greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow: http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/17/infograph...
Table 1 has estimates of how many years of remaining global emissions we have before we exceed the cumulative emission budgets for various goals of limiting warming to at most +2, +3 or +4 degrees, and different probabilities of success. Note that the Friedlingstein et al paper from 2014 didn't even bother to talk about the possibility of limiting warming to +1.5 degrees C.
These estimates of emissions rates for remaining years before our cumulative emissions budget is exceeded are highly optimistic in the sense that they assume annual CO_2-equivalent emissions stop growing, i.e. the rate we are emitting greenhouse gas is held constant to whatever they were in 2014. In comparison, annual greenhouse gas emissions continue to grow: http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/17/infograph...