If Facebook ads have any effect at all, then they can decide the outcome of elections. If you need 10,000 votes to beat your opponent and Facebook ads can get you those votes, not using them could be the deciding factor resulting in a loss.

Of course there are also hundreds of other factors deciding the outcome, so Facebook isn't special in any way.

It's special because with microtargeting you can target exactly the 10000 voters that you need, giving each one a personalized message crafted to fit that individual's personality and views, and the messages will be seen by those individuals alone.

So it's perfectly possible to feed 10000 voters their personally crafted propaganda and have nobody else even aware that it is happening.

Still not buying it.

1. You'd have to know that 10 000 votes is missing.

2. You'd have to know how to target those 10 000 missing voters (criteria).

3. You'd have to craft very specific messages based on your criteria to determine who they are.

4. Now, hoping that those criteria are fit you have to hope that the message you crafted is going to be seen and noticed by your prospects.

5. Message noticed ? Good, how did you craft a message that would make up many voter's mind without being obvious ?

6. Who cares, you just have to convince the team running the campaign that social network marketing converts. That's the real skill.

That isn’t too hard with half-way decent models.

I mean if you really believe you can do it you probably should and cash in easy multimillion dollar cheques from campaigns looking for this service.

You mean like Cambridge Analytica did in 2016?

Do you think that newspapers, radio, or TV have decided elections in the past? And do you understand microtargeting?

For me the answer is yes and yes, and I would be surprised if Facebook does not have a major effect on elections.

> Do you think that newspapers, radio, or TV have decided elections in the past?

Newspapers, radio and TV believe they have that power (we have been studying that since the 30's) but it's really not that simple. Last I checked it's still word-of-mouth and close IRL peer influence that works.

> And do you understand microtargeting?

Unfortunately, yes.

> Last I checked it's still word-of-mouth and close IRL peer influence that works.

It works, and it probably has the largest effect, but that doesn't prevent other things from working. If you factor in that IRL influence is hard to manufacture, whereas you can just buy ads on various platforms and show them to lots of people, mass advertising can easily come out ahead in terms of cost.

IRL peer influence is really hard to manufacture.

Now, don't get me wrong. Selling cigarettes or other things through influencers, social network ad campaigns and social network campaigns work for some products. Elections ? I'd like to see the numbers and I'd be happy (and scared) to change my opinion.

The ad industry is worth over 200 billion dollars. You really think it just doesn't work at all?