> I have strong personal anecdotal evidence that casual hookups are much more upfront about condom-less sex and in fact I find that a shockingly high percent outright refuse condom sex (e.g. bareback only). I'm not sure if the actual condom use rate is lower (I wouldn't be surprised) but in my experience the upfront non-condom attitudes is staggering and way higher than 10 years ago. Tech, attitudes, PrEP have shifted culture and depressingly for me lowers match rates from an already tiny population in my experience by more than 50% of guys on hook up apps !

Condom usage has been dropping for decades. It began dropping before ARVs were discovered in the 90s, and it's steadily decreased in the years before PrEP was discovered as well. There are a lot of well-studied reasons for this.

So yes, you're right that fewer people are using condoms today than they were 10 years ago, but the correlation runs the other way. The search for a different prevention tool (which resulted in PrEP) was motivated by the fact that people have realized for decades that condoms were not going to be a viable long-term solution for addressing the spread of sexually-transmitted HIV.