Re:The next recession
by madskillsmonk on Thursday October 11, 2018 @01:23PM
(#18195327)
Everyone used the money handed out to buy property, and now your real estate prices have gone up an enormous amount, to the point where it's been pointed out as one of the biggest property bubbles, and young people will have an incredibly hard time affording a home.
This seems pretty unlikely. The handout mentioned was a one-off 900 Australian dollars per individual earning less than $AU100k, and a one-off "back to school" bonus per school-aged child.
900 dollars, or even $2100 for a small family isn't the sort of cash that would inflate an auction for a home anywhere, let alone in one of the australian cities affected by the current bubble.
Those 900 dollars don't just stay in everybody's bank account, they get spent, and start circulating the system and eventually consolidated into fewer hands, who in turn buys properties or other assets.
Yeah ok, I don't have anything to point to which refutes that.
An analysis of the breakdown of the contributors to the Australian housing bubble in 2018 would be cool to see, though. Probably some kind of even split between significant foreign investment in property, negative tax gearing, zoning laws, transport infrastructure issues and a one-off $900 payment that went to middle and low-income earners a decade ago.
Damned trickle-up economics.
On the other hand, Australia was also exporting coal and iron ore to insatiable (at the time) India and China. We also didn’t have the same real estate bubble (at the time).
Hard to prove either way, but Aus did move first and injected a lot of capital into the system, we didn’t enter a recession (unlike rest of OECD), and we didn’t end up having to bail out banks.