Re:Russian spies detained in The Hague were planning cyber b...
by guilhas on Monday September 17, 2018 @02:33PM
(#18008641)
Nice excuses. What I heard was the media, and the "experts", did a bad job.
A poll, your favorite. Let's hope they used a good model. https://news.gallup.com/poll/197090/majority-voters-think-me...
Those making the 95% prediction were using statistical models established for that purpose before the identity of the candidates or what those models would show were known. They quite arguably are bad models as they assumed state level deviations from polling results are independent where history suggests that, in fact, they are strongly correlated (a fact pointed out by Nate Silver prior to the election, in explaining why 538 had a much lower projection of Clinton's probability of victory.) But choosing a bad model isn't propaganda.